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dc.contributor.authorCarvalho, Joana Sen_UK
dc.contributor.authorGraham, Bruceen_UK
dc.contributor.authorBocksberger, Gaёlleen_UK
dc.contributor.authorMaisels, Fionaen_UK
dc.contributor.authorWilliamson, Elizabeth A.en_UK
dc.contributor.authorWich, Sergeen_UK
dc.contributor.authorSop, Tenekwetcheen_UK
dc.contributor.authorAmarasekaran, Balaen_UK
dc.contributor.authorBarca, Benjaminen_UK
dc.contributor.authorBarrie, Abdulaien_UK
dc.contributor.authorBergl, Richard A.en_UK
dc.contributor.authorBoesch, Christopheen_UK
dc.contributor.authorBoesch, Hedwigeen_UK
dc.contributor.authorBrncic, Terry M.en_UK
dc.contributor.authorMorgan, Bethan J.en_UK
dc.description.abstractAim Modelling African great ape distribution has until now focused on current or past conditions, while future scenarios remain scarcely explored. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we predicted changes in taxon-specific distribution under future scenarios of climate, land use and human populations for (1) areas outside protected areas (PAs) only (assuming complete management effectiveness of PAs), (2) the entire study region and (3) interspecies range overlap. Location Tropical Africa. Methods We compiled occurrence data (n = 5,203) on African apes from the IUCN A.P.E.S. database and extracted relevant climate-, habitat- and human-related predictors representing current and future (2050) conditions to predict taxon-specific range change under a best- and a worst-case scenario, using ensemble forecasting. Results The predictive performance of the models varied across taxa. Synergistic interactions between predictors are shaping African ape distribution, particularly human-related variables. On average across taxa, a range decline of 50% is expected outside PAs under the best scenario if no dispersal occurs (61% in worst scenario). Otherwise, an 85% range reduction is predicted to occur across study regions (94% worst). However, range gains are predicted outside PAs if dispersal occurs (52% best, 21% worst), with a slight increase in gains expected across study regions (66% best, 24% worst). Moreover, more than half of range losses and gains are predicted to occur outside PAs where interspecific ranges overlap. Main Conclusions Massive range decline is expected by 2050, but range gain is uncertain as African apes will not be able to occupy these new areas immediately due to their limited dispersal capacity, migration lag and ecological constraints. Given that most future range changes are predicted outside PAs, Africa's current PA network is likely to be insufficient for preserving suitable habitats and maintaining connected ape populations. Thus, conservation planners urgently need to integrate land use planning and climate change mitigation measures at all decision-making levels both in range countries and abroad.en_UK
dc.relationCarvalho JS, Graham B, Bocksberger G, Maisels F, Williamson EA, Wich S, Sop T, Amarasekaran B, Barca B, Barrie A, Bergl RA, Boesch C, Boesch H, Brncic TM & Morgan BJ (2021) Predicting range shifts of African apes under global change scenarios. Diversity and Distributions.
dc.rights© 2021 The Authors. Diversity and Distributions published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.en_UK
dc.subjectclimate changeen_UK
dc.subjectgreat apeen_UK
dc.subjecthuman population scenariosen_UK
dc.subjectIUCN SSC A.P.E.S. databaseen_UK
dc.subjectland use changeen_UK
dc.subjectprotected areasen_UK
dc.subjectspecies distribution modellingen_UK
dc.titlePredicting range shifts of African apes under global change scenariosen_UK
dc.typeJournal Articleen_UK
dc.citation.jtitleDiversity and Distributionsen_UK
dc.type.statusVoR - Version of Recorden_UK
dc.description.notesOutput Status: Forthcoming/Available Onlineen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationLiverpool John Moores Universityen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationComputing Scienceen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationMax Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropologyen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationBiological and Environmental Sciencesen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationLiverpool John Moores Universityen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationMax Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropologyen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationTacugama Chimpanzee Sanctuaryen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationResearch for Evidence-based and Achievable Decisions (READSL)en_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationNorth Carolina Zooen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationMax Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropologyen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationMax Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropologyen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationTacugama Chimpanzee Sanctuaryen_UK
rioxxterms.apcnot requireden_UK
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_UK
local.rioxx.authorCarvalho, Joana S|0000-0002-4235-1242en_UK
local.rioxx.authorGraham, Bruce|0000-0002-3243-2532en_UK
local.rioxx.authorBocksberger, Gaёlle|0000-0002-3399-0405en_UK
local.rioxx.authorMaisels, Fiona|0000-0002-0778-0615en_UK
local.rioxx.authorWilliamson, Elizabeth A.|0000-0001-6848-9154en_UK
local.rioxx.authorWich, Serge|0000-0003-3954-5174en_UK
local.rioxx.authorSop, Tenekwetche|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorAmarasekaran, Bala|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorBarca, Benjamin|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorBarrie, Abdulai|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorBergl, Richard A.|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorBoesch, Christophe|0000-0001-9538-7858en_UK
local.rioxx.authorBoesch, Hedwige|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorBrncic, Terry M.|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorMorgan, Bethan J.|en_UK
local.rioxx.projectInternal Project|University of Stirling|
local.rioxx.filenameCarvalho et al 2021.pdfen_UK
Appears in Collections:Computing Science and Mathematics Journal Articles

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