Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/32165
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dc.contributor.authorBarwell, Louise Jen_UK
dc.contributor.authorPerez-Sierra, Anaen_UK
dc.contributor.authorHenricot, Beatriceen_UK
dc.contributor.authorHarris, Annaen_UK
dc.contributor.authorBurgess, Treena Ien_UK
dc.contributor.authorHardy, Gilesen_UK
dc.contributor.authorScott, Peteren_UK
dc.contributor.authorWilliams, Narien_UK
dc.contributor.authorCooke, David E Len_UK
dc.contributor.authorGreen, Sarahen_UK
dc.contributor.authorChapman, Daniel Sen_UK
dc.contributor.authorPurse, Bethan Ven_UK
dc.date.accessioned2021-01-15T01:01:39Z-
dc.date.available2021-01-15T01:01:39Z-
dc.date.issued2021-04en_UK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1893/32165-
dc.description.abstract1. Plant pathogens are introduced to new geographical regions ever more frequently as global connectivity increases. Predicting the threat they pose to plant health can be difficult without in‐depth knowledge of behaviour, distribution and spread. Here, we evaluate the potential for using biological traits and phylogeny to predict global threats from emerging pathogens. 2. We use a species‐level trait database and phylogeny for 179 Phytophthora species: oomycete pathogens impacting natural, agricultural, horticultural and forestry settings. We compile host and distribution reports for Phytophthora species across 178 countries and evaluate the power of traits, phylogeny and time since description (reflecting species‐level knowledge) to explain and predict their international transport, maximum latitude and host breadth using Bayesian phylogenetic generalised linear mixed models. 3. In the best‐performing models, traits, phylogeny and time since description together explained up to 90%, 97% and 87% of variance in number of countries reached, latitudinal limits and host range, respectively. Traits and phylogeny together explained up to 26%, 41% and 34% of variance in the number of countries reached, maximum latitude and host plant families affected, respectively, but time since description had the strongest effect. 4. Root‐attacking species were reported in more countries, and on more host plant families than foliar‐attacking species. Host generalist pathogens had thicker‐walled resting structures (stress‐tolerant oospores) and faster growth rates at their optima. Cold‐tolerant species are reported in more countries and at higher latitudes, though more accurate interspecific empirical data are needed to confirm this finding. 5. Policy implications. We evaluate the potential of an evolutionary trait‐based framework to support horizon‐scanning approaches for identifying pathogens with greater potential for global‐scale impacts. Potential future threats from Phytophthora include Phytophthora x heterohybrida, P. lactucae, P. glovera, P. x incrassata, P. amnicola and P. aquimorbida, which are recently described, possibly under‐reported species, with similar traits and/or phylogenetic proximity to other high‐impact species. Priority traits to measure for emerging species may be thermal minima, oospore wall index and growth rate at optimum temperature. Trait‐based horizon‐scanning approaches would benefit from the development of international and cross‐sectoral collaborations to deliver centralised databases incorporating pathogen distributions, traits and phylogeny.en_UK
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherWileyen_UK
dc.relationBarwell LJ, Perez-Sierra A, Henricot B, Harris A, Burgess TI, Hardy G, Scott P, Williams N, Cooke DEL, Green S, Chapman DS & Purse BV (2021) Evolutionary trait-based approaches for predicting future global impacts of plant pathogens in the genus Phytophthora. Journal of Applied Ecology, 58 (4), pp. 718-730. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13820en_UK
dc.rights© 2020 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.en_UK
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_UK
dc.subjectbiosecurityen_UK
dc.subjectglobal transporten_UK
dc.subjecthorizon scanningen_UK
dc.subjecthost rangeen_UK
dc.subjectinvasivenessen_UK
dc.subjectpathogenen_UK
dc.subjectplant healthen_UK
dc.subjecttraitsen_UK
dc.titleEvolutionary trait-based approaches for predicting future global impacts of plant pathogens in the genus Phytophthoraen_UK
dc.typeJournal Articleen_UK
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/1365-2664.13820en_UK
dc.citation.jtitleJournal of Applied Ecologyen_UK
dc.citation.issn1365-2664en_UK
dc.citation.issn0021-8901en_UK
dc.citation.volume58en_UK
dc.citation.issue4en_UK
dc.citation.spage718en_UK
dc.citation.epage730en_UK
dc.citation.publicationstatusPublisheden_UK
dc.citation.peerreviewedRefereeden_UK
dc.type.statusVoR - Version of Recorden_UK
dc.contributor.funderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Councilen_UK
dc.citation.date14/12/2020en_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationCentre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH)en_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationForest Researchen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationForest Researchen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationForest Researchen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationMurdoch Universityen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationMurdoch Universityen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationPlant & Food Researchen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationPlant & Food Researchen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationThe James Hutton Instituteen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationForest Researchen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationBiological and Environmental Sciencesen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationCentre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH)en_UK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000601100300001en_UK
dc.identifier.scopusid2-s2.0-85097954664en_UK
dc.identifier.wtid1695660en_UK
dc.contributor.orcid0000-0003-1836-4112en_UK
dc.date.accepted2020-11-16en_UK
dcterms.dateAccepted2020-11-16en_UK
dc.date.filedepositdate2021-01-14en_UK
rioxxterms.apcnot requireden_UK
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_UK
rioxxterms.versionVoRen_UK
local.rioxx.authorBarwell, Louise J|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorPerez-Sierra, Ana|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorHenricot, Beatrice|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorHarris, Anna|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorBurgess, Treena I|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorHardy, Giles|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorScott, Peter|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorWilliams, Nari|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorCooke, David E L|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorGreen, Sarah|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorChapman, Daniel S|0000-0003-1836-4112en_UK
local.rioxx.authorPurse, Bethan V|en_UK
local.rioxx.projectProject ID unknown|Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council|http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000268en_UK
local.rioxx.freetoreaddate2021-01-14en_UK
local.rioxx.licencehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/|2021-01-14|en_UK
local.rioxx.filename1365-2664.13820.pdfen_UK
local.rioxx.filecount1en_UK
local.rioxx.source1365-2664en_UK
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