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Appears in Collections:Computing Science and Mathematics Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: A global risk assessment of primates under climate and land use/cover scenarios
Author(s): Carvalho, Joana S
Graham, Bruce
Rebelo, Hugo
Bocksberger, Gaëlle
Meyer, Christoph F J
Wich, Serge
Kuhl, Hjalmar S
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Keywords: climate change
extinction risk
land use/cover change
primate conservation
primate hotspots
species range
Issue Date: Sep-2019
Citation: Carvalho JS, Graham B, Rebelo H, Bocksberger G, Meyer CFJ, Wich S & Kuhl HS (2019) A global risk assessment of primates under climate and land use/cover scenarios. Global Change Biology, 25 (9), pp. 3163-3178.
Abstract: Primates are facing an impending extinction crisis, driven by extensive habitat loss, land use change, and hunting. Climate change is an additional threat, which alone or in combination with other drivers, may severely impact those taxa unable to track suitable environmental conditions. Here, we investigate the extent of climate and land use/cover (LUC) change‐related risks for primates. We employed an analytical approach to objectively select a subset of climate scenarios, for which we then calculated changes in climatic and LUC conditions for 2050 across primate ranges (N=426 species) under a best‐ and a worst‐case scenario. Generalised linear models were used to examine whether these changes varied according to region, conservation status, range extent, and dominant habitat. Finally, we reclassified primate ranges based on different magnitudes of maximum temperature change, and quantified the proportion of ranges overall and of primate hotspots in particular that are likely to be exposed to extreme temperature increases. We found that, under the worst‐case scenario, 74% of Neotropical forest‐dwelling primates are likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases up to 7°C. In contrast, 38% of Malagasy savanna primates will experience less pronounced warming of up to 3.5°C. About one quarter of Asian and African primates will face up to 50% crop expansion within their range. Primary land (undisturbed habitat) is expected to disappear across species’ ranges, whereas secondary land (disturbed habitat) will increase by up to 98%. With 86% of primate ranges likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases >3°C, primate hotspots in the Neotropics are expected to be particularly vulnerable. Our study highlights the fundamental exposure risk of a large percentage of primate ranges to predicted climate and LUC changes. Importantly, our findings underscore the urgency with which climate change mitigation measures need to be implemented to avert primate extinctions on an unprecedented scale.
DOI Link: 10.1111/gcb.14671
Rights: This item has been embargoed for a period. During the embargo please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Carvalho, JS, Graham, B, Rebelo, H, et al. A global risk assessment of primates under climate and land use/cover scenarios. Glob Change Biol. 2019; 25: 3163– 3178, which has been published in final form at This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.

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