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dc.contributor.authorCarvalho, Joana Sen_UK
dc.contributor.authorGraham, Bruceen_UK
dc.contributor.authorRebelo, Hugoen_UK
dc.contributor.authorBocksberger, Gaëlleen_UK
dc.contributor.authorMeyer, Christoph F Jen_UK
dc.contributor.authorWich, Sergeen_UK
dc.contributor.authorKuhl, Hjalmar Sen_UK
dc.description.abstractPrimates are facing an impending extinction crisis, driven by extensive habitat loss, land use change, and hunting. Climate change is an additional threat, which alone or in combination with other drivers, may severely impact those taxa unable to track suitable environmental conditions. Here, we investigate the extent of climate and land use/cover (LUC) change‐related risks for primates. We employed an analytical approach to objectively select a subset of climate scenarios, for which we then calculated changes in climatic and LUC conditions for 2050 across primate ranges (N=426 species) under a best‐ and a worst‐case scenario. Generalised linear models were used to examine whether these changes varied according to region, conservation status, range extent, and dominant habitat. Finally, we reclassified primate ranges based on different magnitudes of maximum temperature change, and quantified the proportion of ranges overall and of primate hotspots in particular that are likely to be exposed to extreme temperature increases. We found that, under the worst‐case scenario, 74% of Neotropical forest‐dwelling primates are likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases up to 7°C. In contrast, 38% of Malagasy savanna primates will experience less pronounced warming of up to 3.5°C. About one quarter of Asian and African primates will face up to 50% crop expansion within their range. Primary land (undisturbed habitat) is expected to disappear across species’ ranges, whereas secondary land (disturbed habitat) will increase by up to 98%. With 86% of primate ranges likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases >3°C, primate hotspots in the Neotropics are expected to be particularly vulnerable. Our study highlights the fundamental exposure risk of a large percentage of primate ranges to predicted climate and LUC changes. Importantly, our findings underscore the urgency with which climate change mitigation measures need to be implemented to avert primate extinctions on an unprecedented scale.en_UK
dc.relationCarvalho JS, Graham B, Rebelo H, Bocksberger G, Meyer CFJ, Wich S & Kuhl HS (2019) A global risk assessment of primates under climate and land use/cover scenarios. Global Change Biology, 25 (9), pp. 3163-3178.
dc.rightsThis item has been embargoed for a period. During the embargo please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Carvalho, JS, Graham, B, Rebelo, H, et al. A global risk assessment of primates under climate and land use/cover scenarios. Glob Change Biol. 2019; 25: 3163– 3178, which has been published in final form at This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.en_UK
dc.subjectclimate changeen_UK
dc.subjectextinction risken_UK
dc.subjectland use/cover changeen_UK
dc.subjectprimate conservationen_UK
dc.subjectprimate hotspotsen_UK
dc.subjectspecies rangeen_UK
dc.titleA global risk assessment of primates under climate and land use/cover scenariosen_UK
dc.typeJournal Articleen_UK
dc.rights.embargoreason[Carvalho_et_al-2019-Global_Change_Biology.pdf] Publisher requires embargo of 12 months after formal publication.en_UK
dc.citation.jtitleGlobal Change Biologyen_UK
dc.type.statusAM - Accepted Manuscripten_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationComputing Scienceen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationComputing Scienceen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Portoen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationMax Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropologyen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Salforden_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationLiverpool John Moores Universityen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationMax Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropologyen_UK
dc.description.refREF Compliant by Deposit in Stirling's Repositoryen_UK
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