Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/28777
Appears in Collections:Biological and Environmental Sciences Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: Mechanistic species distribution modeling reveals a niche shift during invasion
Author(s): Chapman, Daniel S
Scalone, Romain
Štefanić, Edita
Bullock, James M
Keywords: biological invasion
climate change
common ragweed
ecological niche model
niche conservatism
process-based model
rapid evolution
Issue Date: 30-Jun-2017
Citation: Chapman DS, Scalone R, Štefanić E & Bullock JM (2017) Mechanistic species distribution modeling reveals a niche shift during invasion. Ecology, 98 (6), pp. 1671-1680. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1835
Abstract: Niche shifts of nonnative plants can occur when they colonize novel climatic conditions. However, the mechanistic basis for niche shifts during invasion is poorly understood and has rarely been captured within species distribution models. We quantified the consequence of between-population variation in phenology for invasion of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) across Europe. Ragweed is of serious concern because of its harmful effects as a crop weed and because of its impact on public health as a major aeroallergen. We developed a forward mechanistic species distribution model based on responses of ragweed development rates to temperature and photoperiod. The model was parameterized and validated from the literature and by reanalyzing data from a reciprocal common garden experiment in which native and invasive populations were grown within and beyond the current invaded range. It could therefore accommodate between-population variation in the physiological requirements for flowering, and predict the potentially invaded ranges of individual populations. Northern-origin populations that were established outside the generally accepted climate envelope of the species had lower thermal requirements for bud development, suggesting local adaptation of phenology had occurred during the invasion. The model predicts that this will extend the potentially invaded range northward and increase the average suitability across Europe by 90% in the current climate and 20% in the future climate. Therefore, trait variation observed at the population scale can trigger a climatic niche shift at the biogeographic scale. For ragweed, earlier flowering phenology in established northern populations could allow the species to spread beyond its current invasive range, substantially increasing its risk to agriculture and public health. Mechanistic species distribution models offer the possibility to represent niche shifts by varying the traits and niche responses of individual populations. Ignoring such effects could substantially underestimate the extent and impact of invasions.
DOI Link: 10.1002/ecy.1835
Rights: Copyright by the Ecological Society of America. Publisher policy allows the author to post the work in a publicly accessible form on his/her personal or home institution's webpages.

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