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dc.contributor.authorCarvalho, Laurenceen_UK
dc.contributor.authorFerguson, Claire Aen_UK
dc.contributor.authorScott, E Marianen_UK
dc.contributor.authorCodd, Geoffreyen_UK
dc.contributor.authorDavies, P Sianen_UK
dc.contributor.authorTyler, Andrewen_UK
dc.description.abstractCyanobacterial toxins constitute one of the most high risk categories of waterborne toxic biological substances. For this reason there is a clear need to know which freshwater environments are most susceptible to the development of large populations of cyanobacteria. Phytoplankton data from 134 UK lakes were used to develop a series of Generalised Additive Models and Generalised Additive Mixed Models to describe which kinds of lakes may be susceptible to cyanobacterial blooms using widely available explanatory variables. Models were developed for log cyanobacterial biovolume. Water colour and alkalinity are significant explanatory variables and retention time and TP borderline significant (R2-adj = 21.9%). Surprisingly, the models developed reveal that nutrient concentrations are not the primary explanatory variable; water colour and alkalinity were more important. However, given suitable environments (low colour, neutral-alkaline waters), cyanobacteria do increase with both increasing retention time and increasing TP concentrations, supporting the observations that cyanobacteria are one of the most visible symptoms of eutrophication, particularly in warm, dry summers. The models can contribute to the assessment of risks to public health, at a regional- to national level, helping target lake monitoring and management more cost-effectively at those lakes at the highest risk of breaching World Health Organisation guideline levels for cyanobacteria in recreational waters. The models also inform restoration options available for reducing cyanobacterial blooms, indicating that, in the highest risklakes (alkaline, low colour lakes), risks can generally be lessened through management aimed at reducing nutrient loads and increasing flushing during summer.en_UK
dc.relationCarvalho L, Ferguson CA, Scott EM, Codd G, Davies PS & Tyler A (2011) Cyanobacterial blooms: Statistical models describing risk factors for national-scale lake assessment and lake management. Science of the Total Environment, 409 (24), pp. 5353-5358.
dc.rightsThe publisher does not allow this work to be made publicly available in this Repository. Please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study.en_UK
dc.subjectAlgal bloomen_UK
dc.subjectBlue-green algaeen_UK
dc.subjectWater framework directiveen_UK
dc.titleCyanobacterial blooms: Statistical models describing risk factors for national-scale lake assessment and lake managementen_UK
dc.typeJournal Articleen_UK
dc.rights.embargoreason[1-s2.0-S004896971101031X-main.pdf] The publisher does not allow this work to be made publicly available in this Repository therefore there is an embargo on the full text of the work.en_UK
dc.citation.jtitleScience of the Total Environmenten_UK
dc.type.statusVoR - Version of Recorden_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationCentre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH)en_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Glasgowen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Glasgowen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationBiological and Environmental Sciencesen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationEnvironment Agencyen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationBiological and Environmental Sciencesen_UK
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_UK
local.rioxx.authorCarvalho, Laurence|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorFerguson, Claire A|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorScott, E Marian|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorCodd, Geoffrey|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorDavies, P Sian|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorTyler, Andrew|0000-0003-0604-5827en_UK
local.rioxx.projectInternal Project|University of Stirling|
Appears in Collections:Biological and Environmental Sciences Journal Articles

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