Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/7268
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dc.contributor.authorGoulson, Daveen_UK
dc.contributor.authorDerwent, Lara Cen_UK
dc.contributor.authorHanley, Michael Een_UK
dc.contributor.authorDunn, Derek Wen_UK
dc.contributor.authorAbolins, Steven Ren_UK
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-08T13:13:26Z-
dc.date.available2012-08-08T13:13:26Zen_UK
dc.date.issued2005-10en_UK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1893/7268-
dc.description.abstract1. Calyptrate flies include numerous species that are disease vectors and have a high nuisance value, notably Musca domestica. Populations are often associated with livestock farms and domestic waste disposal facilities such as landfill, where the accumulating organic matter provides suitable breeding conditions for a range of species. 2. We examined the relationship between fly numbers and weather conditions using a 4-year data set of weekly fly catches from six sites in southern UK, together with meteorological data. The first 3 years were used to develop predictive models, and these were then used to forecast fly populations in the fourth year. The accuracy of these predictions was assessed by comparison with the actual fly catches for that year. Separate models were developed for M. domestica, Calliphora spp. and all calyptrate flies combined. 3. Predictions based only on humidity, temperature and rainfall were strongly correlated with observed data (r2 values ranged from 0·52 to 0·84), suggesting that fly population changes are largely driven by the weather rather than by biotic factors. We can forecast fly populations so that control measures need only be deployed when weather conditions are suitable for a fly outbreak, reducing the need for prophylactic insecticide use. 4. Climate change was simulated using the most recent predictions of future temperature increases. Our models predicted substantial increases in fly populations up to 244% by 2080 compared with current levels, with the greatest increases occurring in the summer months. 5. Synthesis and applications. Models developed use weather data to predict populations of pestiferous flies such as M. domestica, which may prove valuable in integrated control programmes. These models predict substantial increases in fly populations in the future under likely scenarios of climate change. If this occurs we may expect considerable increases in the incidence of fly-borne disease.en_UK
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherWileyen_UK
dc.relationGoulson D, Derwent LC, Hanley ME, Dunn DW & Abolins SR (2005) Predicting calyptrate fly populations from the weather, and probable consequences of climate change. Journal of Applied Ecology, 42 (5), pp. 795-804. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2005.01078.xen_UK
dc.rightsThe publisher does not allow this work to be made publicly available in this Repository. Please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study.en_UK
dc.rights.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/under-embargo-all-rights-reserveden_UK
dc.subjectCalliphoraen_UK
dc.subjectdisease transmissionen_UK
dc.subjecthuman wasteen_UK
dc.subjecthumidityen_UK
dc.subjectMusca domesticaen_UK
dc.subjecttemperatureen_UK
dc.titlePredicting calyptrate fly populations from the weather, and probable consequences of climate changeen_UK
dc.typeJournal Articleen_UK
dc.rights.embargodate3000-01-01en_UK
dc.rights.embargoreason[goulson_predictingflypopulations_2005.pdf] The publisher does not allow this work to be made publicly available in this Repository therefore there is an embargo on the full text of the work.en_UK
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/j.1365-2664.2005.01078.xen_UK
dc.citation.jtitleJournal of Applied Ecologyen_UK
dc.citation.issn1365-2664en_UK
dc.citation.issn0021-8901en_UK
dc.citation.volume42en_UK
dc.citation.issue5en_UK
dc.citation.spage795en_UK
dc.citation.epage804en_UK
dc.citation.publicationstatusPublisheden_UK
dc.citation.peerreviewedRefereeden_UK
dc.type.statusVoR - Version of Recorden_UK
dc.author.emaildave.goulson@stir.ac.uken_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationBiological and Environmental Sciencesen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Southamptonen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Southamptonen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Southamptonen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Southamptonen_UK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000232143300003en_UK
dc.identifier.wtid786528en_UK
dcterms.dateAccepted2005-10-31en_UK
dc.date.filedepositdate2012-08-03en_UK
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_UK
rioxxterms.versionVoRen_UK
local.rioxx.authorGoulson, Dave|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorDerwent, Lara C|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorHanley, Michael E|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorDunn, Derek W|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorAbolins, Steven R|en_UK
local.rioxx.projectInternal Project|University of Stirling|https://isni.org/isni/0000000122484331en_UK
local.rioxx.freetoreaddate3000-01-01en_UK
local.rioxx.licencehttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/under-embargo-all-rights-reserved||en_UK
local.rioxx.filenamegoulson_predictingflypopulations_2005.pdfen_UK
local.rioxx.filecount1en_UK
local.rioxx.source0021-8901en_UK
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