No future growth enhancement expected at the northern edge for European beech due to continued water limitation

Abstract

With ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree-ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species-dependent and less well-known for more temperate tree species. Using a unique pan-European tree-ring network of 26,430 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees from 2,118 sites, we applied a linear mixed-effects modeling framework to i) explain variation in climate-dependent growth and ii) project growth for the near future (2021-2050) across the entire distribution of beech. We modeled the spatial pattern of radial growth responses to annually varying climate as a function of mean climate conditions (mean annual temperature, mean annual climatic water balance, continentality). Over the calibration period (1952-2011) the model yielded high regional explanatory power (R2 = 0.38-0.72). Considering a moderate climate-change scenario (CMIP6 SSP2-4.5), beech growth is projected to decrease in the future across most of its distribution range. In particular, projected growth decreases by 12-18% (interquartile range) in northwestern Central Europe and by 11-21% in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, climate-driven growth increases are limited to around 13% of the current occurrence, where historical mean annual temperature was below ~6°C. More specifically, the model predicts a 3-24% growth increase in the high-elevation clusters of the Alps and Carpathian Arc. Notably, we find little potential for future growth increases (-10 to +2%) at the poleward leading edge in southern Scandinavia. Because in this region beech growth is found to be primarily water-limited, a northward shift in its distributional range will be constrained by water availability.