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Appears in Collections:Computing Science and Mathematics Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: Associating Climatic Trends with Stochastic Modelling of Flow Sequences
Author(s): Patidar, Sandhya
Tanner, Eleanor
Soundharajan, Bankaru-Swamy
SenGupta, Bhaskar
Keywords: stochastic modelling
climate change
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
extreme events modelling
Issue Date: Jun-2021
Date Deposited: 9-Jul-2021
Citation: Patidar S, Tanner E, Soundharajan B & SenGupta B (2021) Associating Climatic Trends with Stochastic Modelling of Flow Sequences. Geosciences, 11 (6), p. 27, Art. No.: 255.
Abstract: patterns are highly sensitive to temperature (T) variation and thus also affect natural streamflow processes. This paper presents a novel suite of stochastic modelling approaches for associating streamflow sequences with climatic trends. The present work is built upon a stochastic modelling framework (HMM_GP) that integrates a hidden Markov model (HMM) with a generalised Pareto (GP) distribution for simulating synthetic flow sequences. The GP distribution within the HMM_GP model aims to improve the model’s efficiency in effectively simulating extreme events. This paper further investigated the potential of generalised extreme value distribution (GEV) coupled with an HMM model within a regression-based scheme for associating the impacts of precipitation and evapotranspiration processes on streamflow. The statistical characteristic of the pioneering modelling schematic was thoroughly assessed for its suitability to generate and predict synthetic river flow sequences for a set of future climatic projections, specifically during ENSO events. The new modelling schematic can be adapted for a range of applications in hydrology, agriculture, and climate change.
DOI Link: 10.3390/geosciences11060255
Rights: © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (
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