Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/32021
Appears in Collections:Biological and Environmental Sciences Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: Eco-epidemiological uncertainties of emerging plant diseases: the challenge of predicting Xylella fastidiosa dynamics in novel environments
Author(s): Occhibove, Flavia
Chapman, Daniel S
Mastin, Alexander J
Parnell, Stephen S R
Agstner, Barbara
Mato-Amboage, Rosa
Jones, Glyn
Dunn, Michael
Pollard, Chris R J
Robinson, James S
Marzano, Mariella
Davies, Althea L
White, Rehema M
Fearne, Andrew
White, Steven M
Keywords: Xylella fastidiosa
emerging infectious plant disease
epidemiological model
pest risk assessment
plant health
Issue Date: Nov-2020
Date Deposited: 27-Nov-2020
Citation: Occhibove F, Chapman DS, Mastin AJ, Parnell SSR, Agstner B, Mato-Amboage R, Jones G, Dunn M, Pollard CRJ, Robinson JS, Marzano M, Davies AL, White RM, Fearne A & White SM (2020) Eco-epidemiological uncertainties of emerging plant diseases: the challenge of predicting Xylella fastidiosa dynamics in novel environments. Phytopathology, 110 (11), pp. 1740-1750. https://doi.org/10.1094/phyto-03-20-0098-rvw
Abstract: In order to prevent and control the emergence of biosecurity threats such as vector-borne diseases of plants, it is vital to understand drivers of entry, establishment, and spatio-temporal spread, as well as the form, timing and effectiveness of disease management strategies. An inherent challenge for policy in combatting emerging disease is the uncertainty associated with intervention planning in areas not yet affected, based on models and data from current outbreaks. Following the recent high-profile emergence of the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa in several European countries, we review the most pertinent epidemiological uncertainties concerning this bacterium dynamics in novel environments. To reduce the considerable ecological and socio-economic impacts of these outbreaks, eco-epidemiological research in a broader range of environmental conditions needs to be conducted and used to inform policy to enhance disease risk assessment, and support successful policy-making decisions. By characterising infection pathways, we can highlight the uncertainties that surround our knowledge of this disease, drawing attention to how these are amplified when trying to predict and manage outbreaks in currently unaffected locations. To help guide future research and decision-making processes, we invited experts in different fields of plant pathology to identify data to prioritise when developing pest-risk assessments. Our analysis revealed that epidemiological uncertainty is mainly driven by the large variety of hosts, vectors, and bacterial strains, leading to a range of different epidemiological characteristics further magnified by novel environmental conditions. These results offer new insights on how eco-epidemiological analyses can enhance understanding of plant disease spread and support management recommendations.
DOI Link: 10.1094/phyto-03-20-0098-rvw
Rights: Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0 International license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Licence URL(s): http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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