Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/31012
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dc.contributor.authorHubau, Wannesen_UK
dc.contributor.authorLewis, Simon Len_UK
dc.contributor.authorPhillips, Oliver Len_UK
dc.contributor.authorAffum-Baffoe, Kofien_UK
dc.contributor.authorBeeckman, Hansen_UK
dc.contributor.authorCuní-Sanchez, Aidaen_UK
dc.contributor.authorDaniels, Armanduen_UK
dc.contributor.authorEwango, Corneille E Nen_UK
dc.contributor.authorFauset, Sophieen_UK
dc.contributor.authorMukinzi, Jacques Men_UK
dc.contributor.authorSheil, Douglasen_UK
dc.contributor.authorSonké, Bonaventureen_UK
dc.contributor.authorWhite, Lee J Ten_UK
dc.contributor.authorAbernethy, Katharineen_UK
dc.contributor.authorJeffery, Kathrynen_UK
dc.date.accessioned2020-04-18T00:01:09Z-
dc.date.available2020-04-18T00:01:09Z-
dc.date.issued2020en_UK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1893/31012-
dc.description.abstractStructurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions1,2,3. Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest ‘carbon sink’ will continue for decades4,5. Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53–0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests6. Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth’s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature7,8,9. Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth’s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass10 reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth’s climate.en_UK
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherNature Publishing Groupen_UK
dc.relationHubau W, Lewis SL, Phillips OL, Affum-Baffoe K, Beeckman H, Cuní-Sanchez A, Daniels A, Ewango CEN, Fauset S, Mukinzi JM, Sheil D, Sonké B, White LJT, Abernethy K & Jeffery K (2020) Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests. Nature, 579, pp. 80-87. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2035-0en_UK
dc.rightsThis item has been embargoed for a period. During the embargo please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study. This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Nature. The final authenticated version is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2035-0. Users may view, print, copy, download and text and data-mine the content, for the purposes of academic research, subject always to the full conditions of use. Any further use is subject to permission from Springer Nature. The conditions of use are not intended to override, should any national law grant further rights to any user.en_UK
dc.subjectClimate-change impactsen_UK
dc.subjectEcosystem ecologyen_UK
dc.subjectForest ecologyen_UK
dc.subjectProjection and predictionen_UK
dc.subjectTropical ecologyen_UK
dc.titleAsynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forestsen_UK
dc.typeJournal Articleen_UK
dc.rights.embargodate2020-09-05en_UK
dc.rights.embargoreason[Hubau_Lewis_AsynchronousSink.pdf] Publisher requires embargo of 6 months after formal publication.en_UK
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41586-020-2035-0en_UK
dc.identifier.pmid32132693en_UK
dc.citation.jtitleNatureen_UK
dc.citation.issn1476-4687en_UK
dc.citation.issn0028-0836en_UK
dc.citation.volume579en_UK
dc.citation.spage80en_UK
dc.citation.epage87en_UK
dc.citation.publicationstatusPublisheden_UK
dc.citation.peerreviewedRefereeden_UK
dc.type.statusAM - Accepted Manuscripten_UK
dc.contributor.funderNatural Environment Research Councilen_UK
dc.author.emailk.a.abernethy@stir.ac.uken_UK
dc.citation.date04/03/2020en_UK
dc.description.notesAdditional co-authors: Martin J. P. Sullivan, Terry C. H. Sunderland, Hermann Taedoumg, Sean C. Thomas, Stephen Adu-Bredu, Christian A. Amani, Timothy R. Baker, Lindsay F. Banin, Fidèle Baya, Serge K. Begne, Amy C. Bennett, Fabrice Benedet, Robert Bitariho, Yannick E. Bocko, Pascal Boeckx, Patrick Boundja, Roel J. W. Brienen, Terry Brncic, Eric Chezeaux, George B. Chuyong, Connie J. Clark, Murray Collins, James A. Comiskey, David A. Coomes, Greta C. Dargie, Thales de Haulleville, Marie Noel Djuikouo Kamdem, Jean-Louis Doucet, Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, Ted R. Feldpausch, Alusine Fofanah, Ernest G. Foli, Martin Gilpin, Emanuel Gloor, Christelle Gonmadje, Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury, Jefferson S. Hall, Alan C. Hamilton, David J. Harris, Terese B. Hart, Mireille B. N. Hockemba, Annette Hladik, Suspense A. Ifo, Tommaso Jucker, Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu, Elizabeth Kearsley, David Kenfack, Alexander Koch, Miguel E. Leal, Aurora Levesley, Jeremy A. Lindsell, Janvier Lisingo, Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez, Jon C. Lovett, Jean-Remy Makana, Yadvinder Malhi, Andrew R. Marshall, Jim Martin, Emanuel H. Martin, Faustin M. Mbayu, Vincent P. Medjibe, Vianet Mihindou, Edward T. A. Mitchard, Sam Moore, Pantaleo K. T. Munishi, Natacha Nssi Bengone, Lucas Ojo, Fidèle Evouna Ondo, Kelvin S.-H. Peh, Georgia C. Pickavance, Axel Dalberg Poulsen, John R. Poulsen, Lan Qie, Jan Reitsma, Francesco Rovero, Michael D. Swaine, Joey Talbot, James Taplin, David M. Taylor, Duncan W. Thomas, Benjamin Toirambe, John Tshibamba Mukendi, Darlington Tuagben, Peter M. Umunay, Geertje M. F. van der Heijden, Hans Verbeeck, Jason Vleminckx, Simon Willcock, Hannsjörg Wöll, John T. Woods & Lise Zemaghoen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Leedsen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Leedsen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Leedsen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationForestry Commission of Ghanaen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationRoyal Museum for Central Africaen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity College Londonen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationForestry Development Authority of Liberiaen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationWildlife Conservation Society (Africa Program)en_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Plymouthen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationWorld Wide Fund for Natureen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationNorwegian University of Life Sciencesen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Yaounde Ien_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationBiological and Environmental Sciencesen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationBiological and Environmental Sciencesen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationBiological and Environmental Sciencesen_UK
dc.identifier.scopusid2-s2.0-85081043307en_UK
dc.identifier.wtid1594860en_UK
dc.contributor.orcid0000-0002-0393-9342en_UK
dc.contributor.orcid0000-0002-2632-0008en_UK
dc.date.accepted2019-12-19en_UK
dc.date.filedepositdate2020-04-17en_UK
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