Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/30796
Appears in Collections:Biological and Environmental Sciences Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change
Author(s): Maberly, Stephen C
O’Donnell, Ruth A
Woolway, R Iestyn
Cutler, Mark E J
Gong, Mengyi
Jones, Ian D
Merchant, Christopher J
Miller, Claire A
Politi, Eirini
Scott, E Marian
Thackeray, Stephen J
Tyler, Andrew N
Keywords: limnology
projection and prediction
Issue Date: Dec-2020
Citation: Maberly SC, O’Donnell RA, Woolway RI, Cutler MEJ, Gong M, Jones ID, Merchant CJ, Miller CA, Politi E, Scott EM, Thackeray SJ & Tyler AN (2020) Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change. Nature Communications, 11 (1), Art. No.: 1232. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15108-z
Abstract: Water temperature is critical for the ecology of lakes. However, the ability to predict its spatial and seasonal variation is constrained by the lack of a thermal classification system. Here we define lake thermal regions using objective analysis of seasonal surface temperature dynamics from satellite observations. Nine lake thermal regions are identified that mapped robustly and largely contiguously globally, even for small lakes. The regions differed from other global patterns, and so provide unique information. Using a lake model forced by 21st century climate projections, we found that 12%, 27% and 66% of lakes will change to a lower latitude thermal region by 2080–2099 for low, medium and high greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5) respectively. Under the worst-case scenario, a 79% reduction in the number of lakes in the northernmost thermal region is projected. This thermal region framework can facilitate the global scaling of lake-research.
DOI Link: 10.1038/s41467-020-15108-z
Rights: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Licence URL(s): http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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