Economic Evaluation and Sensitivity-Risk Analysis of Zarshuran Gold Mine Project

Abstract

Zarshuran gold deposit, with the total reserves of some 12.5 million tons of 4.18 g/ton ore, is considered to be an important gold mining project in the area. In this paper the feasibility studies of the whole project is carried out on the basis of several economic variables. Given that mining data are often of uncertain nature, these economic variables have therefore been estimated under the conditions of uncertainty. The resultant Net Present Value is hence also obtained under the same conditions. For this purpose, a model is first devised with the help of Excel and COMFAR software. The model is then developed that considers different scenarios which would result in different expected values for the economic variables. It is concluded that the NPV of the project is most sensitive to gold and silver price and that other variables such as discount rate, operating and capital cost all affect the feasibility of the project with lower degree of severity. Finally, risk analysis is also carried out using Mont Carlo technique, in order to estimate the most probable value of NPV. The average NPV calculated in this way is US$ 49.7 Million, whilst without due consideration of risk, this would be US$ 36.6 Million. The techniques used, together with the procedures adopted in this paper, can be used in feasibility studies of all mining projects. Such decision would result in more accurate Net Present Values than expected from other frequently used methods.