Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/30061
Appears in Collections:History and Politics Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: Quantifying the impact of the Public Health Responsibility Deal on salt intake, cardiovascular disease and gastric cancer burdens: Interrupted time series and microsimulation study
Author(s): Laverty, A A
Kypridemos, C
Seferidi, P
Vamos, E P
Pearson-Stuttard, J
Collins, B
Capewell, S
Mwatsama, M
Cairney, P
Fleming, K
O'Flaherty, M
Millett, C
Contact Email: c.m.allan@stir.ac.uk
Issue Date: 2019
Citation: Laverty AA, Kypridemos C, Seferidi P, Vamos EP, Pearson-Stuttard J, Collins B, Capewell S, Mwatsama M, Cairney P, Fleming K, O'Flaherty M & Millett C (2019) Quantifying the impact of the Public Health Responsibility Deal on salt intake, cardiovascular disease and gastric cancer burdens: Interrupted time series and microsimulation study. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 73 (9), pp. 881-887. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2018-211749
Abstract: Background In 2011, England introduced the Public Health Responsibility Deal (RD), a public-private partnership (PPP) which gave greater freedom to the food industry to set and monitor targets for salt intakes. We estimated the impact of the RD on trends in salt intake and associated changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and gastric cancer (GCa) incidence, mortality and economic costs in England from 2011–2025. Methods We used interrupted time series models with 24 hours' urine sample data and the IMPACTNCD microsimulation model to estimate impacts of changes in salt consumption on CVD and GCa incidence, mortality and economic impacts, as well as equity impacts. Results Between 2003 and 2010 mean salt intake was falling annually by 0.20 grams/day among men and 0.12 g/d among women (P-value for trend both < 0.001). After RD implementation in 2011, annual declines in salt intake slowed statistically significantly to 0.11 g/d among men and 0.07 g/d among women (P-values for differences in trend both P < 0.001). We estimated that the RD has been responsible for approximately 9900 (interquartile quartile range (IQR): 6700 to 13,000) additional cases of CVD and 1500 (IQR: 510 to 2300) additional cases of GCa between 2011 and 2018. If the RD continues unchanged between 2019 and 2025, approximately 26 000 (IQR: 20 000 to 31,000) additional cases of CVD and 3800 (IQR: 2200 to 5300) cases of GCa may occur. Interpretation Public-private partnerships such as the RD which lack robust and independent target setting, monitoring and enforcement are unlikely to produce optimal health gains.
DOI Link: 10.1136/jech-2018-211749
Rights: © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.
Licence URL(s): http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

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