Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/30061
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dc.contributor.authorLaverty, A Aen_UK
dc.contributor.authorKypridemos, Cen_UK
dc.contributor.authorSeferidi, Pen_UK
dc.contributor.authorVamos, E Pen_UK
dc.contributor.authorPearson-Stuttard, Jen_UK
dc.contributor.authorCollins, Ben_UK
dc.contributor.authorCapewell, Sen_UK
dc.contributor.authorMwatsama, Men_UK
dc.contributor.authorCairney, Pen_UK
dc.contributor.authorFleming, Ken_UK
dc.contributor.authorO'Flaherty, Men_UK
dc.contributor.authorMillett, Cen_UK
dc.date.accessioned2019-09-10T14:28:51Z-
dc.date.available2019-09-10T14:28:51Z-
dc.date.issued2019en_UK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1893/30061-
dc.description.abstractBackground In 2011, England introduced the Public Health Responsibility Deal (RD), a public-private partnership (PPP) which gave greater freedom to the food industry to set and monitor targets for salt intakes. We estimated the impact of the RD on trends in salt intake and associated changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and gastric cancer (GCa) incidence, mortality and economic costs in England from 2011–2025. Methods We used interrupted time series models with 24 hours' urine sample data and the IMPACTNCD microsimulation model to estimate impacts of changes in salt consumption on CVD and GCa incidence, mortality and economic impacts, as well as equity impacts. Results Between 2003 and 2010 mean salt intake was falling annually by 0.20 grams/day among men and 0.12 g/d among women (P-value for trend both < 0.001). After RD implementation in 2011, annual declines in salt intake slowed statistically significantly to 0.11 g/d among men and 0.07 g/d among women (P-values for differences in trend both P < 0.001). We estimated that the RD has been responsible for approximately 9900 (interquartile quartile range (IQR): 6700 to 13,000) additional cases of CVD and 1500 (IQR: 510 to 2300) additional cases of GCa between 2011 and 2018. If the RD continues unchanged between 2019 and 2025, approximately 26 000 (IQR: 20 000 to 31,000) additional cases of CVD and 3800 (IQR: 2200 to 5300) cases of GCa may occur. Interpretation Public-private partnerships such as the RD which lack robust and independent target setting, monitoring and enforcement are unlikely to produce optimal health gains.en_UK
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherBMJ Publishing Groupen_UK
dc.relationLaverty AA, Kypridemos C, Seferidi P, Vamos EP, Pearson-Stuttard J, Collins B, Capewell S, Mwatsama M, Cairney P, Fleming K, O'Flaherty M & Millett C (2019) Quantifying the impact of the Public Health Responsibility Deal on salt intake, cardiovascular disease and gastric cancer burdens: Interrupted time series and microsimulation study. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 73 (9), pp. 881-887. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2018-211749en_UK
dc.rights© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.en_UK
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/en_UK
dc.titleQuantifying the impact of the Public Health Responsibility Deal on salt intake, cardiovascular disease and gastric cancer burdens: Interrupted time series and microsimulation studyen_UK
dc.typeJournal Articleen_UK
dc.identifier.doi10.1136/jech-2018-211749en_UK
dc.identifier.pmid31320459en_UK
dc.citation.jtitleJournal of Epidemiology and Community Healthen_UK
dc.citation.issn1470-2738en_UK
dc.citation.issn0143-005Xen_UK
dc.citation.volume73en_UK
dc.citation.issue9en_UK
dc.citation.spage881en_UK
dc.citation.epage887en_UK
dc.citation.publicationstatusPublisheden_UK
dc.citation.peerreviewedRefereeden_UK
dc.type.statusVoR - Version of Recorden_UK
dc.author.emailc.m.allan@stir.ac.uken_UK
dc.citation.date18/06/2019en_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationImperial College Londonen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Liverpoolen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationImperial College Londonen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationImperial College Londonen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Liverpoolen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Liverpoolen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Liverpoolen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUK Health Forumen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationPoliticsen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Liverpoolen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Liverpoolen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationImperial College Londonen_UK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000490193000015en_UK
dc.identifier.scopusid2-s2.0-85070555872en_UK
dc.identifier.wtid1442004en_UK
dc.contributor.orcid0000-0002-9956-832Xen_UK
dc.date.accepted2019-05-24en_UK
dc.description.refREF Eligible with Permitted Exceptionen_UK
dc.date.filedepositdate2019-09-10en_UK
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