Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/29806
Appears in Collections:Computing Science and Mathematics Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: One model to rule them all? Modelling approaches across OneHealth for human, animal and plant epidemics
Author(s): Kleczkowski, Adam
Hoyle, Andy
McMenemy, Paul
Contact Email: paul.mcmenemy@stir.ac.uk
Keywords: infectious disease
OneHealth
compartmental models
bio-economic models
plant pathogens
epidemiological data
Issue Date: Jun-2019
Citation: Kleczkowski A, Hoyle A & McMenemy P (2019) One model to rule them all? Modelling approaches across OneHealth for human, animal and plant epidemics. Philosophical Transactions B: Biological Sciences, 374 (1775), Art. No.: 20180255. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0255
Abstract: One hundred years after the 1918 influenza outbreak, are we ready for the next pandemic? This paper addresses the need to identify and develop collaborative, interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral approaches to modelling of infectious diseases including the fields of not only human and veterinary medicine, but also plant epidemiology. Firstly, the paper explains the concepts on which the most common epidemiological modelling approaches are based, namely the division of a host population into susceptible, infected and removed (SIR) classes and the proportionality of the infection rate to the size of the susceptible and infected populations. It then demonstrates how these simple concepts have been developed into a vast and successful modelling framework that has been used in predicting and controlling disease outbreaks for over 100 years. Secondly, it considers the compartmental models based on the SIR paradigm within the broader concept of a ‘disease tetrahedron’ (comprising host, pathogen, environment and man) and uses it to review the similarities and differences among the fields comprising the ‘OneHealth’ approach. Finally, the paper advocates interactions between all fields and explores the future challenges facing modellers.
DOI Link: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0255
Rights: Accepted for publication in Philosophical Transactions B: Biological Sciences published by The Royal Society: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0255. Please cite as: Kleczkowski A, Hoyle A & McMenemy P (2019) One model to rule them all? Modelling approaches across OneHealth for human, animal and plant epidemics. Philosophical Transactions B: Biological Sciences, 374 (1775), Art. No.: 20180255.

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