Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/29797
Appears in Collections:Biological and Environmental Sciences Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: A manifesto for predictive conservation
Author(s): Travers, Henry
Selinske, Matthew
Nuno, Ana
Serban, Anca
Mancini, Francesca
Barychka, Tatsiana
Bush, Emma
Rasolofoson, Ranaivo A
Watson, James E M
Milner-Gulland, E J
Contact Email: e.r.bush@stir.ac.uk
Keywords: Anticipatory approaches
Problem framing
Intervention framing
Implementation design
Impact evaluation
Issue Date: Sep-2019
Citation: Travers H, Selinske M, Nuno A, Serban A, Mancini F, Barychka T, Bush E, Rasolofoson RA, Watson JEM & Milner-Gulland EJ (2019) A manifesto for predictive conservation. Biological Conservation, 237, pp. 12-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.05.059
Abstract: If efforts to tackle biodiversity loss and its impact on human wellbeing are to be successful, conservation must learn from other fields which use predictive methods to foresee shocks and pre-empt their impacts in the face of uncertainty, such as military studies, public health and finance. Despite a long history of using predictive models to understand the dynamics of ecological systems and human disturbance, conservationists do not systematically apply predictive approaches when designing and implementing behavioural interventions. This is an important omission because human behaviour is the underlying cause of current widespread biodiversity loss. Here, we critically assess how predictive approaches can transform the way conservation scientists and practitioners plan for and implement social and behavioural change among people living with wildlife. Our manifesto for predictive conservation recognises that social-ecological systems are dynamic, uncertain and complex, and calls on conservationists to embrace the forward-thinking approach which effective conservation requires.
DOI Link: 10.1016/j.biocon.2019.05.059
Rights: This item has been embargoed for a period. During the embargo please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study. Accepted refereed manuscript of: Travers H, Selinske M, Nuno A, Serban A, Mancini F, Barychka T, Bush E, Rasolofoson RA, Watson JEM & Milner-Gulland EJ (2019) A manifesto for predictive conservation. Biological Conservation, 237, pp. 12-18. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.05.059 © 2019, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

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