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Appears in Collections:Biological and Environmental Sciences Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: Refining predictions of population decline at species' rear edges
Author(s): Vilà-Cabrera, Albert
Premoli, Andrea C
Jump, Alistair S
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Keywords: biogeography
biotic interactions
climate change
population ecology
population genetics
relict population
Issue Date: May-2019
Citation: Vilà-Cabrera A, Premoli AC & Jump AS (2019) Refining predictions of population decline at species' rear edges. Global Change Biology, 25 (5), pp. 1549-1560.
Abstract: According to broad‐scale application of biogeographical theory, widespread retractions of species’ rear edges should be seen in response to ongoing climate change. This prediction rests on the assumption that rear edge populations are ‘marginal’ since they occur at the limit of the species’ ecological tolerance and are expected to decline in performance as climate warming pushes them to extirpation. However, conflicts between observations and predictions are increasingly accumulating and little progress has been made in explaining this disparity. We argue that a revision of the concept of marginality is necessary, together with explicit testing of population decline, which is increasingly possible as data availability improves. Such action should be based on taking the population perspective across a species’ rear edge, encompassing the ecological, geographical and genetic dimensions of marginality. Refining our understanding of rear edge populations is essential to advance our ability to monitor, predict and plan for the impacts of environmental change on species range dynamics.
DOI Link: 10.1111/gcb.14597
Rights: This item has been embargoed for a period. During the embargo please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Vilà-Cabrera, A, Premoli, AC, Jump, AS. Refining predictions of population decline at species' rear edges. Glob Change Biol. 2019; 25: 1549–1560, which has been published in final form at This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.

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