Bayesian Buildings: An Introduction for the Numerically Challenged

Abstract

Bayesian statistics provide a powerful tool which can combine different types of information about a problem. In archaeology over the past decade they have become routinely applied for estimating chronologies, where relative dating information from stratigraphy is available to complement series of scientific dates (Bayliss and Bronk Ramsey 2004). Over the past few years, the first steps have been taken to apply these powerful techniques to the dating of standing buildings. This paper provides an introduction to the principles of Bayesian statistics for those with a limited background in mathematics. The equations needed to implement Bayes’ theorem to problems in the real world are scary; the principles are not. By grappling with the principles readers can start to assess the validity of models presented to them.