Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/28040
Appears in Collections:Law and Philosophy Conference Papers and Proceedings
Author(s): Ebert, Philip
Title: A Bayesian Perspective on Avalanche Decision-Making and the Relevance of Stability tests
Citation: Ebert P (2018) A Bayesian Perspective on Avalanche Decision-Making and the Relevance of Stability tests. In: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2018, Innsbruck, Austria. ISSW 2018: International Snow Science Workshop, 07.10.2018-12.10.2018. Innsbruck: Montana State University, pp. 1334-1338. http://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/item.php?id=2768
Issue Date: Oct-2018
Conference Name: ISSW 2018: International Snow Science Workshop
Conference Dates: 2018-10-07 - 2018-10-12
Conference Location: Innsbruck
Abstract: In this paper, I explore a Bayesian perspective on avalanche decision-making. I motivate this general outlook by introducing a well-known cognitive bias, the base-rate fallacy, and show how a similar pattern applies to decision-making in avalanche-terrain when assessing the relevance of stability tests. I then present three theoretical lessons that emerge from adopting a Bayesian perspective to avalanche decision- making. I conclude by raising numerous challenges for avalanche educators when incorporating the Bayesian perspective into their curriculum and point to future research
Status: VoR - Version of Record
Rights: © Copyright 2001-2018 Montana State University Library These materials may be copied freely by individuals or libraries for personal use, research, teaching (including distribution to classes), or any "fair use" as defined by U.S. copyright laws. Please include this statement and author or photographer attribution with any copies you make. The materials may be linked to freely in non-commercial, non-subscription Internet editions created for an educational purpose. Anyone interested in any other use of these materials, including for-profit Internet editions, should obtain permission from Digital Initiatives at Montana State University Library.
URL: http://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/item.php?id=2768

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