A Bayesian Perspective on Avalanche Decision-Making and the Relevance of Stability tests

Abstract

In this paper, I explore a Bayesian perspective on avalanche decision-making. I motivate this general outlook by introducing a well-known cognitive bias, the base-rate fallacy, and show how a similar pattern applies to decision-making in avalanche-terrain when assessing the relevance of stability tests. I then present three theoretical lessons that emerge from adopting a Bayesian perspective to avalanche decision- making. I conclude by raising numerous challenges for avalanche educators when incorporating the Bayesian perspective into their curriculum and point to future research