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dc.contributor.authorMavragani, Amaryllisen_UK
dc.contributor.authorSampri, Alexiaen_UK
dc.contributor.authorSypsa, Karlaen_UK
dc.contributor.authorTsagarakis, Konstantinos Pen_UK
dc.description.abstractBackground: With the internet’s penetration and use constantly expanding, this vast amount of information can be employed in order to better assess issues in the US health care system. Google Trends, a popular tool in big data analytics, has been widely used in the past to examine interest in various medical and health-related topics and has shown great potential in forecastings, predictions, and nowcastings. As empirical relationships between online queries and human behavior have been shown to exist, a new opportunity to explore the behavior toward asthma—a common respiratory disease—is present. Objective: This study aimed at forecasting the online behavior toward asthma and examined the correlations between queries and reported cases in order to explore the possibility of nowcasting asthma prevalence in the United States using online search traffic data. Methods: Applying Holt-Winters exponential smoothing to Google Trends time series from 2004 to 2015 for the term “asthma,” forecasts for online queries at state and national levels are estimated from 2016 to 2020 and validated against available Google query data from January 2016 to June 2017. Correlations among yearly Google queries and between Google queries and reported asthma cases are examined. Results: Our analysis shows that search queries exhibit seasonality within each year and the relationships between each 2 years’ queries are statistically significant (P < .05). Estimated forecasting models for a 5-year period (2016 through 2020) for Google queries are robust and validated against available data from January 2016 to June 2017. Significant correlations were found between (1) online queries and National Health Interview Survey lifetime asthma (r=–.82, P=.001) and current asthma (r=–.77, P=.004) rates from 2004 to 2015 and (2) between online queries and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System lifetime (r=–.78, P=.003) and current asthma (r=–.79, P=.002) rates from 2004 to 2014. The correlations are negative, but lag analysis to identify the period of response cannot be employed until short-interval data on asthma prevalence are made available. Conclusions: Online behavior toward asthma can be accurately predicted, and significant correlations between online queries and reported cases exist. This method of forecasting Google queries can be used by health care officials to nowcast asthma prevalence by city, state, or nationally, subject to future availability of daily, weekly, or monthly data on reported cases. This method could therefore be used for improved monitoring and assessment of the needs surrounding the current population of patients with asthma.en_UK
dc.publisherJMIR Publicationsen_UK
dc.relationMavragani A, Sampri A, Sypsa K & Tsagarakis KP (2018) Integrating Smart Health in the US Health Care System: Infodemiology Study of Asthma Monitoring in the Google Era. JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, 4 (1), Art. No.: e24.
dc.rights©Amaryllis Mavragani, Alexia Sampri, Karla Sypsa, Konstantinos P Tsagarakis. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (, 12.03.2018. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work, first published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, is properly cited. The complete bibliographic information, a link to the original publication on, as well as this copyright and license information must be included.en_UK
dc.subjectbig dataen_UK
dc.subjectGoogle trendsen_UK
dc.subjecthealth careen_UK
dc.subjecthealth informaticsen_UK
dc.subjectinternet behavioren_UK
dc.subjectonline behavioren_UK
dc.subjectsmart healthen_UK
dc.titleIntegrating Smart Health in the US Health Care System: Infodemiology Study of Asthma Monitoring in the Google Eraen_UK
dc.typeJournal Articleen_UK
dc.citation.jtitleJMIR Public Health and Surveillanceen_UK
dc.type.statusVoR - Version of Recorden_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationComputing Scienceen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Stirlingen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationKing's College Londonen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationDemocritus University of Thraceen_UK
Appears in Collections:Computing Science and Mathematics Journal Articles

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