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Appears in Collections:Computing Science and Mathematics Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: Risk-based strategies for surveillance of tuberculosis infection in cattle for low-risk areas in England and Scotland
Author(s): Salvador, Liliana C M
Deason, Michael
Enright, Jessica
Bessell, Paul R
Kao, Rowland R
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Keywords: Bovine Tuberculosis
Risk factors
risk-based surveillance
Issue Date: Jan-2018
Date Deposited: 23-Oct-2017
Citation: Salvador LCM, Deason M, Enright J, Bessell PR & Kao RR (2018) Risk-based strategies for surveillance of tuberculosis infection in cattle for low-risk areas in England and Scotland. Epidemiology and Infection, 146 (1), pp. 107-118.
Abstract: Disease surveillance can be made more effective by either improving disease detection, providing cost savings, or doing both. Currently, cattle herds in low-risk areas for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in England (LRAs) are tested once every four years. In Scotland, the default herd testing frequency is also four years, but a risk-based system exempts some herds from testing altogether. To extend this approach to other areas, a bespoke understanding of at-risk herds and how risk-based surveillance can affect bTB detection is required. Here, we use a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) to inform a Bayesian probabilistic model of freedom from infection and explore risk-based surveillance strategies in LRAs and Scotland. Our analyses show that in both areas the primary herd-level risk factors for bTB infection are the size of the herd and purchasing cattle from high-risk areas of Great Britain and/or Ireland. A risk-based approach can improve the current surveillance system by both increasing detection (9% and 7% fewer latent infections), and reducing testing burden (6 % and 26% fewer animal tests) in LRAs and Scotland, respectively. Testing at-risk herds more frequently can also improve the level of detection by identifying more infected cases and reducing the hidden burden of the disease, and reduce surveillance effort by exempting low-risk herds from testing.
DOI Link: 10.1017/S0950268817001935
Rights: © Cambridge University Press 2017 This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (, which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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