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Appears in Collections:Biological and Environmental Sciences Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: Simulated climate change, epidemic size, and host evolution across host-parasite populations
Other Titles: Climate change and disease eco-evolution
Author(s): Auld, Stuart K J R
Brand, June
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Keywords: global warming
disease ecology
eco-evolutionary dynamics
Issue Date: Dec-2017
Citation: Auld SKJR & Brand J (2017) Simulated climate change, epidemic size, and host evolution across host-parasite populations [Climate change and disease eco-evolution]. Global Change Biology, 23 (12), pp. 5045-5053.
Abstract: Climate change is causing warmer and more variable temperatures as well as physical flux in natural populations, which will affect the ecology and evolution of infectious disease epidemics. Using replicate semi-natural populations of a coevolving freshwater invertebrate-parasite system (host: Daphnia magna, parasite: Pasteuria ramosa), we quantified the effects of ambient temperature and population mixing (physical flux within populations) on epidemic size and population health. Each population was seeded with an identical suite of host genotypes and dose of parasite transmission spores. Biologically reasonable increases in environmental temperature caused larger epidemics, and population mixing reduced overall epidemic size. Mixing also had a detrimental effect on host populations independent of disease. Epidemics drove parasite-mediated selection, leading to a loss of host genetic diversity, and mixed populations experienced greater evolution due to genetic drift over the season. These findings further our understanding of how diversity loss will reduce the host populations’ capacity to respond to changes in selection, therefore stymying adaptation to further environmental change.
DOI Link: 10.1111/gcb.13769
Rights: This item has been embargoed for a period. During the embargo please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Auld SKJR, Brand J. Simulated climate change, epidemic size, and host evolution across host–parasite populations. Glob Change Biol. 2017;23:5045–5053, which has been published in final form at This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.

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