Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/23939
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dc.contributor.authorRoos, Elinen_UK
dc.contributor.authorBajzelj, Bojanaen_UK
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Peteen_UK
dc.contributor.authorPatel, Mikaelaen_UK
dc.contributor.authorLittle, David Colinen_UK
dc.contributor.authorGarnett, Taraen_UK
dc.date.accessioned2017-08-15T01:29:13Z-
dc.date.available2017-08-15T01:29:13Zen_UK
dc.date.issued2017-02en_UK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1893/23939-
dc.description.abstractMultiple production and demand side measures are needed to improve food system sustainability. This study quantified the theoretical minimum agricultural land requirements to supply Western Europe with food in 2050 from its own land base, together with GHG emissions arising. Assuming that crop yield gaps in agriculture are closed, livestock production efficiencies increased and waste at all stages reduced, a range of food consumption scenarios were modelled each based on different ‘protein futures’. The scenarios were as follows: intensive and efficient livestock production using today’s species mix; intensive efficient poultry–dairy production; intensive efficient aquaculture–dairy; artificial meat and dairy; livestock on ‘ecological leftovers’ (livestock reared only on land unsuited to cropping, agricultural residues and food waste, with consumption capped at that level of availability); and a ‘plant-based eating’ scenario. For each scenario, ‘projected diet’ and ‘healthy diet’ variants were modelled. Finally, we quantified the theoretical maximum carbon sequestration potential from afforestation of spared agricultural land. Results indicate that land use could be cut by 14–86 % and GHG emissions reduced by up to approximately 90 %. The yearly carbon storage potential arising from spared agricultural land ranged from 90 to 700 Mt CO2 in 2050. The artificial meat and plant-based scenarios achieved the greatest land use and GHG reductions and the greatest carbon sequestration potential. The ‘ecological leftover’ scenario required the least cropland as compared with the other meat-containing scenarios, but all available pasture was used, and GHG emissions were higher if meat consumption was not capped at healthy levels. en_UK
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherSpringer Verlagen_UK
dc.relationRoos E, Bajzelj B, Smith P, Patel M, Little DC & Garnett T (2017) Protein futures for Western Europe: potential land use and climate impacts in 2050. Regional Environmental Change, 17 (2), pp. 367-377. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1013-4en_UK
dc.rightsThis item has been embargoed for a period. During the embargo please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study. Published in Regional Environmental Change by Springer. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1013-4en_UK
dc.subjectLand useen_UK
dc.subjectClimateen_UK
dc.subjectFooden_UK
dc.subjectDietary changeen_UK
dc.subjectMitigationen_UK
dc.subjectProteinen_UK
dc.titleProtein futures for Western Europe: potential land use and climate impacts in 2050en_UK
dc.typeJournal Articleen_UK
dc.rights.embargodate2017-07-07en_UK
dc.rights.embargoreason[Protein futures beyond sustainable intensification - Suppl Mat - Revision 2 - 160613.pdf] Publisher requires embargo of 12 months.en_UK
dc.rights.embargoreason[Protein Futures Western Europe - FIGURES - Revised version 160603.pdf] Publisher requires embargo of 12 months.en_UK
dc.rights.embargoreason[Protein Futures Western Europe - TEXT - Revision 2 - 160607.pdf] Publisher requires embargo of 12 months.en_UK
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10113-016-1013-4en_UK
dc.citation.jtitleRegional Environmental Changeen_UK
dc.citation.issn1436-378Xen_UK
dc.citation.issn1436-3798en_UK
dc.citation.volume17en_UK
dc.citation.issue2en_UK
dc.citation.spage367en_UK
dc.citation.epage377en_UK
dc.citation.publicationstatusPublisheden_UK
dc.citation.peerreviewedRefereeden_UK
dc.type.statusAM - Accepted Manuscripten_UK
dc.type.statusAM - Accepted Manuscripten_UK
dc.type.statusAM - Accepted Manuscripten_UK
dc.author.emaild.c.little@stir.ac.uken_UK
dc.citation.date06/07/2016en_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Oxforden_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Cambridgeen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Aberdeenen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationSwedish University of Agricultural Sciencesen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationInstitute of Aquacultureen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Oxforden_UK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000394276200005en_UK
dc.identifier.scopusid2-s2.0-84978123737en_UK
dc.identifier.wtid554267en_UK
dc.contributor.orcid0000-0002-6095-3191en_UK
dc.date.accepted2016-06-15en_UK
dc.date.filedepositdate2016-08-01en_UK
Appears in Collections:Aquaculture Journal Articles

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Protein Futures Western Europe - TEXT - Revision 2 - 160607.pdfFulltext - Accepted Version252.24 kBAdobe PDFView/Open


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