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Appears in Collections:Computing Science and Mathematics Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: A fast algorithm for calculating an expected outbreak size on dynamic contagion networks
Author(s): Enright, Jessica
Kao, Rowland R
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Keywords: Network modelling
Contagion on networks
Issue Date: Sep-2016
Citation: Enright J & Kao RR (2016) A fast algorithm for calculating an expected outbreak size on dynamic contagion networks, Epidemics, 16, pp. 56-62.
Abstract: Calculation of expected outbreak size of a simple contagion on a known contact network is a common and important epidemiological task, and is typically carried out by computationally intensive simulation. We describe an efficient exact method to calculate the expected outbreak size of a contagion on an outbreak-invariant network that is a directed and acyclic, allowing us to model all dynamically changing networks when contagion can only travel forward in time. We describe our algorithm and its use in pseudocode, as well as showing examples of its use on disease relevant, data-derived networks.
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Rights: © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (

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