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Appears in Collections:Computing Science and Mathematics Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: A bio-economic 'war game' model to simulate plant disease incursions and test response strategies at the landscape scale
Author(s): Cook, David
Aurambout, Jean-Philippe
Villalta, Oscar
Liu, Shuang
Edwards, Jacqueline
Maharaj, Savi
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Keywords: Biosecurity
Agent-based modelling
Pest and disease management
Invasive alien species
Landscape pathology
Plant health
Issue Date: Feb-2016
Date Deposited: 14-Jan-2016
Citation: Cook D, Aurambout J, Villalta O, Liu S, Edwards J & Maharaj S (2016) A bio-economic 'war game' model to simulate plant disease incursions and test response strategies at the landscape scale. Food Security, 8 (1), pp. 37-48.
Abstract: Loss of area freedom from invasive alien species can have serious food security implications and place huge responsibility on incursion response managers. They make critical decisions despite profound uncertainty surrounding invasion ecology, surveillance and control technology effectiveness and human behaviour. We propose a spatially-explicit model that can aid response managers in devising and testing management strategies in a virtual world where the costs of failure are negligible. We apply the model in a group-based decision setting in which participants practise responding to fictional disease incursions in a pome fruit production area in Australia. Using the model, the response management group was able to develop mutually satisfactory rules of thumb for the use of quarantine and destruction zones and for when to withdraw resources from eradication efforts.
DOI Link: 10.1007/s12571-015-0524-z
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