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Appears in Collections:Biological and Environmental Sciences Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: Predicting microbial water quality with models: Over-arching questions for managing risk in agricultural catchments
Author(s): Oliver, David
Porter, Kenneth
Pachepsky, Yakov A
Muirhead, Richard W
Reaney, Sim M
Coffey, Rory
Kay, David
Milledge, David G
Hong, Eunmi
Anthony, Steven G
Page, Trevor
Bloodworth, Jack W
Mellander, Per-Erik
Carbonneau, Patrice E
McGrane, Scott J
Quilliam, Richard
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Issue Date: 15-Feb-2016
Citation: Oliver D, Porter K, Pachepsky YA, Muirhead RW, Reaney SM, Coffey R, Kay D, Milledge DG, Hong E, Anthony SG, Page T, Bloodworth JW, Mellander P, Carbonneau PE, McGrane SJ & Quilliam R (2016) Predicting microbial water quality with models: Over-arching questions for managing risk in agricultural catchments, Science of the Total Environment, 544, pp. 39-47.
Abstract: The application of models to predict concentrations of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs) in environmental systems plays an important role for guiding decision-making associated with the management of microbial water quality. In recent years there has been an increasing demand by policy-makers for models to help inform FIO dynamics in order to prioritise efforts for environmental and human-health protection. However, given the limited evidence-base on which FIO models are built relative to other agricultural pollutants (e.g. nutrients) it is imperative that the end-user expectations of FIO models are appropriately managed. In response, this commentary highlights four over-arching questions associated with: (i) model purpose; (ii) modelling approach; (iii) data availability; and (iv) model application, that must be considered as part of good practice prior to the deployment of any modelling approach to predict FIO behaviour in catchment systems. A series of short and longer-term research priorities are proposed in response to these questions in order to promote better model deployment in the field of catchment microbial dynamics.
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Rights: © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (

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