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dc.contributor.authorO'Hare, Anthonyen_UK
dc.contributor.authorOrton, Richarden_UK
dc.contributor.authorBessell, Paul Ren_UK
dc.contributor.authorKao, Rowland Ren_UK
dc.description.abstractFitting models with Bayesian likelihood-based parameter inference is becoming increasingly important in infectious disease epidemiology. Detailed datasets present the opportunity to identify subsets of these data that capture important characteristics of the underlying epidemiology. One such dataset describes the epidemic of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in British cattle, which is also an important exemplar of a disease with a wildlife reservoir (the Eurasian badger). Here, we evaluate a set of nested dynamic models of bTB transmission, including individual- and herd-level transmission heterogeneity and assuming minimal prior knowledge of the transmission and diagnostic test parameters. We performed a likelihood-based bootstrapping operation on the model to infer parameters based only on the recorded numbers of cattle testing positive for bTB at the start of each herd outbreak considering high- and low-risk areas separately. Models without herd heterogeneity are preferred in both areas though there is some evidence for super-spreading cattle. Similar to previous studies, we found low test sensitivities and high within-herd basic reproduction numbers (R0), suggesting that there may be many unobserved infections in cattle, even though the current testing regime is sufficient to control within-herd epidemics in most cases. Compared with other, more data-heavy approaches, the summary data used in our approach are easily collected, making our approach attractive for other systems.en_UK
dc.publisherRoyal Societyen_UK
dc.relationO'Hare A, Orton R, Bessell PR & Kao RR (2014) Estimating epidemiological parameters for bovine tuberculosis in British cattle using a Bayesian partial-likelihood approach. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 281 (1783), Art. No.: 20140248.
dc.rightsCopyright 2014 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.en_UK
dc.titleEstimating epidemiological parameters for bovine tuberculosis in British cattle using a Bayesian partial-likelihood approachen_UK
dc.typeJournal Articleen_UK
dc.citation.jtitleProceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciencesen_UK
dc.type.statusVoR - Version of Recorden_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationComplex Systems - LEGACYen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Glasgowen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Glasgowen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Glasgowen_UK
rioxxterms.apcnot requireden_UK
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_UK
local.rioxx.authorO'Hare, Anthony|0000-0003-2561-9582en_UK
local.rioxx.authorOrton, Richard|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorBessell, Paul R|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorKao, Rowland R|en_UK
local.rioxx.projectInternal Project|University of Stirling|
Appears in Collections:Aquaculture Journal Articles

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