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dc.contributor.authorOrton, Richarden_UK
dc.contributor.authorBessell, Paul Ren_UK
dc.contributor.authorBirch, Colin P Den_UK
dc.contributor.authorO'Hare, Anthonyen_UK
dc.contributor.authorKao, Rowland Ren_UK
dc.description.abstractLivestock movements in Great Britain are well recorded, have been extensively analysed with respect to their role in disease spread, and have been used in real time to advise governments on the control of infectious diseases. Typically, livestock holdings are treated as distinct entities that must observe movement standstills upon receipt of livestock, and must report livestock movements. However, there are currently two dispensations that can exempt holdings from either observing standstills or reporting movements, namely the Sole Occupancy Authority (SOA) and Cattle Tracing System (CTS) Links, respectively. In this report we have used a combination of data analyses and computational modelling to investigate the usage and potential impact of such linked holdings on the size of a Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) epidemic. Our analyses show that although SOAs are abundant, their dynamics appear relatively stagnant. The number of CTS Links is also abundant, and increasing rapidly. Although most linked holdings are only involved in a single CTS Link, some holdings are involved in numerous links that can be amalgamated to form "CTS Chains" which can be both large and geographically dispersed. Our model predicts that under a worst case scenario of "one infected - all infected", SOAs do pose a risk of increasing the size (in terms of number of infected holdings) of a FMD epidemic, but this increase is mainly due to intra-SOA infection spread events. Furthermore, although SOAs do increase the geographic spread of an epidemic, this increase is predominantly local. Whereas, CTS Chains pose a risk of increasing both the size and the geographical spread of the disease substantially, under a worse case scenario. Our results highlight the need for further investigations into whether CTS Chains are transmission chains, and also investigations into intra-SOA movements and livestock distributions due to the lack of current data.en_UK
dc.publisherPublic Library of Scienceen_UK
dc.relationOrton R, Bessell PR, Birch CPD, O'Hare A & Kao RR (2012) Risk of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread Due to Sole Occupancy Authorities and Linked Cattle Holdings. PLoS ONE, 7 (4), Art. No.: e35089.
dc.rights© 2012 Crown Copyright. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the free Open Government License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.en_UK
dc.titleRisk of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread Due to Sole Occupancy Authorities and Linked Cattle Holdingsen_UK
dc.typeJournal Articleen_UK
dc.citation.jtitlePLoS ONEen_UK
dc.type.statusVoR - Version of Recorden_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Glasgowen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Glasgowen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationAnimal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agencyen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationComplex Systems - LEGACYen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Glasgowen_UK
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_UK
local.rioxx.authorOrton, Richard|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorBessell, Paul R|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorBirch, Colin P D|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorO'Hare, Anthony|0000-0003-2561-9582en_UK
local.rioxx.authorKao, Rowland R|en_UK
local.rioxx.projectInternal Project|University of Stirling|
local.rioxx.filenamePlosOne 2011.pdfen_UK
Appears in Collections:Computing Science and Mathematics Journal Articles

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