Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/7716
Appears in Collections:Biological and Environmental Sciences Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: Cyanobacterial blooms: Statistical models describing risk factors for national-scale lake assessment and lake management
Authors: Carvalho, Laurence
Ferguson, Claire A
Scott, E Marian
Codd, Geoffrey
Davies, P Sian
Tyler, Andrew
Contact Email: a.n.tyler@stir.ac.uk
Keywords: Algal bloom
Blue-green algae
Cyanotoxin
Phosphorus
Restoration
Water framework directive
Issue Date: 15-Nov-2011
Publisher: Elsevier
Citation: Carvalho L, Ferguson CA, Scott EM, Codd G, Davies PS & Tyler A (2011) Cyanobacterial blooms: Statistical models describing risk factors for national-scale lake assessment and lake management, Science of the Total Environment, 409 (24), pp. 5353-5358.
Abstract: Cyanobacterial toxins constitute one of the most high risk categories of waterborne toxic biological substances. For this reason there is a clear need to know which freshwater environments are most susceptible to the development of large populations of cyanobacteria. Phytoplankton data from 134 UK lakes were used to develop a series of Generalised Additive Models and Generalised Additive Mixed Models to describe which kinds of lakes may be susceptible to cyanobacterial blooms using widely available explanatory variables. Models were developed for log cyanobacterial biovolume. Water colour and alkalinity are significant explanatory variables and retention time and TP borderline significant (R2-adj = 21.9%). Surprisingly, the models developed reveal that nutrient concentrations are not the primary explanatory variable; water colour and alkalinity were more important. However, given suitable environments (low colour, neutral-alkaline waters), cyanobacteria do increase with both increasing retention time and increasing TP concentrations, supporting the observations that cyanobacteria are one of the most visible symptoms of eutrophication, particularly in warm, dry summers. The models can contribute to the assessment of risks to public health, at a regional- to national level, helping target lake monitoring and management more cost-effectively at those lakes at the highest risk of breaching World Health Organisation guideline levels for cyanobacteria in recreational waters. The models also inform restoration options available for reducing cyanobacterial blooms, indicating that, in the highest risklakes (alkaline, low colour lakes), risks can generally be lessened through management aimed at reducing nutrient loads and increasing flushing during summer.
Type: Journal Article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/7716
URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004896971101031X
Rights: The publisher does not allow this work to be made publicly available in this Repository. Please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study.
Affiliation: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH)
University of Glasgow
University of Glasgow
Biological and Environmental Sciences
Environment Agency
Biological and Environmental Sciences

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