Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/7548
Appears in Collections:Computing Science and Mathematics Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: The emergence of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus: will a non-pathogenic strain protect the UK?
Authors: White, Peter
Norman, Rachel
Trout, Roger C
Gould, Ernie
Hudson, Peter J
Contact Email: ran@cs.stir.ac.uk
Keywords: rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus
non-pathogenic strain
strain competition
mathematical model
population dynamics
Issue Date: 29-Jul-2001
Publisher: The Royal Society
Citation: White P, Norman R, Trout RC, Gould E & Hudson PJ (2001) The emergence of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus: will a non-pathogenic strain protect the UK?, Philosophical Transactions B: Biological Sciences, 356 (1411), pp. 1087-1095.
Abstract: Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus emerged in China in 1984, and has killed hundreds of millions of wild rabbits in Australia and Europe. In the UK there appears to be an endemic non-pathogenic strain, with high levels of seroprevalence being recorded, in the absence of associated mortality. Using a seasonal, age-structured model we examine the hypothesis that differences in rabbit population demography differentially affect the basic reproductive rates (R0) of the pathogenic and non-pathogenic strains, leading to each dominating in some populations and not others. The strain with the higher R0 excluded the other, with the dynamics depending upon the ratio of the two R0 values. When the non-pathogenic strain dominated, the pathogenic strain caused only transient mortality, although this could be significant when the two R0 values were similar. When the pathogenic strain dominated, repeated epidemics led to host eradication. Seroprevalence data suggest that the non-pathogenic strain may be protecting some, but not all UK populations, with half being 'at risk' from invasion by the pathogenic strain and a fifth prone to significant transient mortality. We identify key questions for empirical research to test this prediction.
Type: Journal Article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/7548
URL: http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/356/1411/1087
DOI Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2001.0897
Rights: The publisher does not allow this work to be made publicly available in this Repository. Please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study.
Affiliation: University of Stirling
Mathematics - CSM Dept
Rabbitwise Consultancy
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH)
University of Stirling

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