|Appears in Collections:||Computing Science and Mathematics Journal Articles|
|Peer Review Status:||Refereed|
|Title:||Modelling the koi herpesvirus (KHV) epidemic highlights the importance of active surveillance within a national control policy|
|Authors:||Taylor, Nicholas G H|
Peeler, Edmund J
|Citation:||Taylor NGH, Norman R, Way K & Peeler EJ (2011) Modelling the koi herpesvirus (KHV) epidemic highlights the importance of active surveillance within a national control policy, Journal of Applied Ecology, 48 (2), pp. 348-355.|
|Abstract:||1. Koi herpesvirus can cause serious disease in carp Cyprinus carpio populations globally. Populations of carp exposed to the virus are already widespread across England and Wales, and there is a need to determine whether and how to control its spread. This study evaluates potential management options and provides recommendations applicable to many infected countries. 2. The influences of the main drivers of the epidemic were investigated using simple compartment based models, and the effectiveness of several potential control options were evaluated. Models were parameterized using recorded fish movement, field and experimental data. 3. Experimental studies suggested the risk of transmitting the virus between waters on angling equipment was low. Data from previous studies suggested live fish movements between fisheries, and the introduction of imported ornamental fish to be the most likely routes by which a fishery could be infected. 4. The models suggest that fish movements between fisheries alone could not have led to the number of exposed sites known to exist in 2007. An additional external infection pressure such as the introduction of imported ornamental fish would have been required, and is likely to have been the main driver of the epidemic in its early stages. 5. Predictions of future scenarios suggest that fish movements between fisheries have taken over as the main driver of the epidemic, and consequently restricting imports to reduce the external infection pressure is unlikely to have much impact on its own. 6. Due to the small proportion of infected waters currently detected, increasing the duration of movement restrictions placed on infected sites from four years to permanent was predicted to have little effect on the epidemic. 7. Synthesis and applications. Given the current stage of the koi herpesvirus epidemic, reducing the spread of the virus between fisheries is likely to be challenging, but may be possible by conducting an active surveillance programme and placing permanent movement restrictions on exposed sites. However, this will only be effective if the external infection pressure can also be reduced, possibly through restrictions on the import of fish from koi herpesvirus infected countries.|
|Rights:||The publisher does not allow this work to be made publicly available in this Repository. Please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author; you can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study.|
|tayloretal2011.pdf||399.08 kB||Adobe PDF||Under Embargo until 31/12/2999 Request a copy|
Note: If any of the files in this item are currently embargoed, you can request a copy directly from the author by clicking the padlock icon above. However, this facility is dependent on the depositor still being contactable at their original email address.
This item is protected by original copyright
Items in the Repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
If you believe that any material held in STORRE infringes copyright, please contact email@example.com providing details and we will remove the Work from public display in STORRE and investigate your claim.