Impact of price shocks and payments on crop diversification and forest use among Malagasy vanilla farmers

Abstract

Crop diversification can help buffer farmers from market volatility and provide alternatives to unsustainable export-driven cash crop monocultures that are also driving forest clearing. We developed a discrete choice experiment (DCE) and an innovative tablet-based experimental game to predict the effects of price shocks and payment incentives on vanilla farmers' willingness to diversify their crops and support forest conservation in northeast Madagascar. The games incorporated spatial and ecological dynamics, and were conducted in groups of six participants using a within-subject design. The results of the DCE showed that farmers highly valued vanilla monocrops and were indifferent to diversified vanilla agroforestry. Women valued the relative earnings from diversified vanilla agroforestry more than men. In the games, the presence of shocks (a drop in vanilla price), led farmers to significantly diversify their crops. Shocks also incentivized more diversified land uses at the landscape level. Payments resulted in improved environmental outcomes through increased vegetation, but decreased crop diversity at the farm level. Payments also discouraged crop diversity among younger respondents. Focus groups followed the games and gave critical insights into game behavior. These findings shed light on the importance of market dynamics and payment schemes in encouraging pro-conservation behavior and crop diversification among farmers reliant on cash crops such as vanilla. We demonstrate how games can provide a low-risk, low-cost tool to predict the impacts of policy interventions.