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Appears in Collections:Biological and Environmental Sciences Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: Simulated climate change, epidemic size and host evolution across host-parasite populations (Forthcoming/Available Online)
Other Titles: Climate change and disease eco-evolution
Authors: Auld, Stuart
Brand, June
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Keywords: global warming
disease ecology
eco-evolutionary dynamics
Issue Date: 22-May-2017
Citation: Auld S & Brand J (2017) Simulated climate change, epidemic size and host evolution across host-parasite populations (Forthcoming/Available Online), Global Change Biology.
Abstract: Climate change is causing warmer and more variable temperatures as well as physical flux in natural populations, which will affect the ecology and evolution of infectious disease epidemics. Using replicate semi-natural populations of a coevolving freshwater invertebrate-parasite system (host: Daphnia magna, parasite: Pasteuria ramosa), we quantified the effects of ambient temperature and population mixing (physical flux within populations) on epidemic size and population health. Each population was seeded with an identical suite of host genotypes and dose of parasite transmission spores. Biologically reasonable increases in environmental temperature caused larger epidemics, and population mixing reduced overall epidemic size. Mixing also had a detrimental effect on host populations independent of disease. Epidemics drove parasite-mediated selection, leading to a loss of host genetic diversity, and mixed populations experienced greater evolution due to genetic drift over the season. These findings further our understanding of how diversity loss will reduce the host populations’ capacity to respond to changes in selection, therefore stymying adaptation to further environmental change.
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