Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/1621
Appears in Collections:Computing Science and Mathematics Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: The effect of seasonal host birth rates on disease persistence
Authors: Ireland, Jillian M
Mestel, Ben D
Norman, Rachel
Contact Email: ran@cs.stir.ac.uk
Keywords: Seasonality
cowpox
Rabbit Haemorrhagic disease
Issue Date: Mar-2007
Publisher: Elsevier
Citation: Ireland JM, Mestel BD & Norman R (2007) The effect of seasonal host birth rates on disease persistence, Mathematical Biosciences, 206 (1), pp. 31-45.
Abstract: In this paper, we add seasonality to the birth rate of an SIR model with density dependence in the death rate. We find that disease persistence can be explained by considering the average value of the seasonal term. If the basic reproductive ratio with this average value then the disease will persist and if with this average value then the disease will die out. However, if the underlying non- seasonal model displays oscillations towards the equilibrium then the dynamics of the seasonal model can become more complex. In this case the seasonality can interact with the underlying oscillations, resonate and the population can display a range of complex behaviours including chaos. We discuss these results in terms of two examples, Cowpox in bank voles and Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease in rabbits.
Type: Journal Article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/1621
URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00255564
DOI Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2006.08.028
Rights: Published in Mathematical Biosciences by Elsevier.
Affiliation: University of Stirling
University of Stirling
Mathematics - CSM Dept

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