Common enemy, colliding policies: neoclassical realism's perspective on Turkey and Iraq during the Mosul operation against ISIS

Abstract

This paper examines the divergent foreign policy responses of Turkey and Iraq to the common threat posed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham(ISIS) during the 2016–2017 Mosul Operation, utilizing Neoclassical Realism (NcR) as the analytical framework. Contrary to Neorealist expectations that common threats lead to alignment and cooperation, Turkey and Iraq pursued markedly different strategies. Turkey espoused a revisionist foreign policy aimed at redesigning the regional geopolitical landscape in its favour, leveraging ideological and historical ties to Mosul. This strategy comprised keeping a military presence in northern Iraq and backing local ‘kin’ groups and actors, in spite of facing defiance from Iraq’s federal government, pro-Iran Shia militias and concerns from the international community. In contrast, Iraq’s responses were characterized by under-balancing, with internal fragmentation and elite disagreements undermining a coherent and effective foreign policy. The systemic pressures of regional instability and the ascent of IS were filtered via different intervening variables, namely leader images, state-society relations, and institutional strength, eventually determining both countries’ diverse foreign policy outputs.