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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/27610
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dc.contributor.authorEbert, Philipen_UK
dc.contributor.authorPhotopoulou, Theonien_UK
dc.date.accessioned2018-08-14T00:00:43Z-
dc.date.available2018-08-14T00:00:43Z-
dc.date.issued2013en_UK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1893/27610-
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, we will discuss how competence can affect a person’s ability to avoid avalanches and present a way of modelling such competence. Given that the prior probability of getting caught in avalanches is fairly low for any skier (competent or not), we draw some consequences from the model using Bayes’ theorem for “everyday” situations.en_UK
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherMontana State Universityen_UK
dc.relationEbert P & Photopoulou T (2013) Bayes' beacon: avalanche prediction, competence and evidence for competence. Modelling the effect of competent and incompetent predictions of highly improbable events. In: Proceedings, 2013 International Snow Science Workshop (ISSW), Grenoble, France. International Snow Science Workshop (ISSW) Proceedings. International Snow Science Workshop 2013, Grenoble, France, 07.10.2013-11.10.2013. Grenoble, France: Montana State University, pp. 363-370. http://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/item.php?id=1817en_UK
dc.relation.ispartofseriesInternational Snow Science Workshop (ISSW) Proceedingsen_UK
dc.relation.urihttp://issw2013.com/index.php?langue=enen_UK
dc.rights© Copyright 2001-2018 Montana State University Library These materials may be copied freely by individuals or libraries for personal use, research, teaching (including distribution to classes), or any "fair use" as defined by U.S. copyright laws. Please include this statement and author or photographer attribution with any copies you make. The materials may be linked to freely in non-commercial, non-subscription Internet editions created for an educational purpose.en_UK
dc.subjectDecision-making in avalanche-terrain, Modelling competence, Bayes’ Theoremen_UK
dc.titleBayes' beacon: avalanche prediction, competence and evidence for competence. Modelling the effect of competent and incompetent predictions of highly improbable eventsen_UK
dc.typeConference Paperen_UK
dc.citation.spage363en_UK
dc.citation.epage370en_UK
dc.citation.publicationstatusPublisheden_UK
dc.type.statusAM - Accepted Manuscripten_UK
dc.identifier.urlhttp://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/item.php?id=1817en_UK
dc.citation.btitleProceedings, 2013 International Snow Science Workshop (ISSW), Grenoble, Franceen_UK
dc.citation.conferencedates2013-10-07 - 2013-10-11en_UK
dc.citation.conferencelocationGrenoble, Franceen_UK
dc.citation.conferencenameInternational Snow Science Workshop 2013en_UK
dc.citation.date31/12/2013en_UK
dc.publisher.addressGrenoble, Franceen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationPhilosophyen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Cape Townen_UK
dc.identifier.wtid690580en_UK
dc.contributor.orcid0000-0002-3730-0600en_UK
dcterms.dateAccepted2013-12-31en_UK
dc.date.filedepositdate2013-07-23en_UK
dc.subject.tagMind and Knowledgeen_UK
dc.subject.tagRisk Managementen_UK
dc.subject.tagRisk Takingen_UK
dc.subject.tagModellingen_UK
dc.subject.tagEpistemologyen_UK
rioxxterms.apcnot requireden_UK
rioxxterms.typeConference Paper/Proceeding/Abstracten_UK
rioxxterms.versionAMen_UK
local.rioxx.authorEbert, Philip|0000-0002-3730-0600en_UK
local.rioxx.authorPhotopoulou, Theoni|en_UK
local.rioxx.projectInternal Project|University of Stirling|https://isni.org/isni/0000000122484331en_UK
local.rioxx.freetoreaddate2013-12-31en_UK
local.rioxx.licencehttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/under-embargo-all-rights-reserved||2013-12-31en_UK
local.rioxx.licencehttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved|2013-12-31|en_UK
local.rioxx.filenameISSW13_Ebert_Photopoulou_with_Corrigendum.pdfen_UK
local.rioxx.filecount1en_UK
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