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http://hdl.handle.net/1893/27355| Appears in Collections: | Law and Philosophy Journal Articles |
| Peer Review Status: | Refereed |
| Title: | Bayesian reasoning in avalanche terrain: a theoretical investigation |
| Author(s): | Ebert, Philip |
| Keywords: | Bayesian reasoning avalanche decision-making avalanche education base-rate fallacy snow science risk management. |
| Issue Date: | 1-Jan-2019 |
| Date Deposited: | 8-Jun-2018 |
| Citation: | Ebert P (2019) Bayesian reasoning in avalanche terrain: a theoretical investigation. Journal of Adventure Education and Outdoor Learning, 19 (1), pp. 84-95. https://doi.org/10.1080/14729679.2018.1508356 |
| Abstract: | In this article, I explore a Bayesian approach to avalanche decision-making. I mo- tivate this perspective by highlighting a version of the base-rate fallacy and show that a similar pattern applies to decision-making in avalanche-terrain. I then draw out three theoretical lessons from adopting a Bayesian approach and discuss these lessons critically. Lastly, I highlight a number of challenges for avalanche educators when incorporating the Bayesian perspective in their curriculum. |
| DOI Link: | 10.1080/14729679.2018.1508356 |
| Rights: | © 2018 Institute for Outdoor Learning This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way. |
| Licence URL(s): | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
Files in This Item:
| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian reasoning in avalanche terrain a theoretical investigation.pdf | Fulltext - Published Version | 1.28 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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