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Appears in Collections:Law and Philosophy Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: Bayesian reasoning in avalanche terrain: a theoretical investigation
Author(s): Ebert, Philip
Keywords: Bayesian reasoning
avalanche decision-making
avalanche education
base-rate fallacy
snow science
risk management.
Issue Date: 1-Jan-2019
Citation: Ebert P (2019) Bayesian reasoning in avalanche terrain: a theoretical investigation. Journal of Adventure Education and Outdoor Learning, 19 (1), pp. 84-95.
Abstract: In this article, I explore a Bayesian approach to avalanche decision-making. I mo- tivate this perspective by highlighting a version of the base-rate fallacy and show that a similar pattern applies to decision-making in avalanche-terrain. I then draw out three theoretical lessons from adopting a Bayesian approach and discuss these lessons critically. Lastly, I highlight a number of challenges for avalanche educators when incorporating the Bayesian perspective in their curriculum.
DOI Link: 10.1080/14729679.2018.1508356
Rights: © 2018 Institute for Outdoor Learning This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (, which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way.

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