Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/26351
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dc.contributor.authorKnuchel-Takano, Andreen_UK
dc.contributor.authorHunt, Danielen_UK
dc.contributor.authorJaccard, Abbygailen_UK
dc.contributor.authorBhimjiyani, Artien_UK
dc.contributor.authorBrown, Martinen_UK
dc.contributor.authorRetat, Liseen_UK
dc.contributor.authorBrown, Katrinaen_UK
dc.contributor.authorHinde, Sebastianen_UK
dc.contributor.authorSelvarajah, Chiten_UK
dc.contributor.authorBauld, Lindaen_UK
dc.contributor.authorWebber, Lauraen_UK
dc.date.accessioned2017-12-15T00:53:21Z-
dc.date.available2017-12-15T00:53:21Z-
dc.date.issued2018-10-31en_UK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1893/26351-
dc.description.abstractIntroduction  Taxing tobacco is one of the most effective ways to reduce smoking prevalence, mitigate its devastating consequential health harms and progress towards a tobacco-free society. This study modelled the health and economic impacts of increasing the existing cigarette tobacco duty escalator (TDE) in the UK from the current 2% above consumer price inflation to 5%.  Methods  A two-stage modelling process was used. First, a non-linear multivariate regression model was fitted to cross-sectional smoking data, creating longitudinal projections from 2015 to 2035. Second, these projections were used to predict the future incidence, prevalence and cost of 17 smoking-related diseases using a Monte Carlo microsimulation approach. A sustained increase in the duty escalator was evaluated against a baseline of continuing historical smoking trends and the existing duty escalator.  Results  A sustained increase in the TDE is projected to reduce adult smoking prevalence to 6% in 2035, from 10% in a baseline scenario. After increasing the TDE, only 65% of female and 60% of male would-be smokers would actually be smoking in 2035. The intervention is projected to avoid around 75 200 new cases of smoking-related diseases between 2015 and 2035. In 2035 alone, £49 m in National Health Service and social care costs and £192 m in societal premature mortality and morbidity costs are projected to be avoided.  Conclusion  Increasing the UK TDE to 5% above inflation could effectively reduce smoking prevalence, prevent diseases and avoid healthcare costs. It would deliver substantial progress towards a tobacco-free society and should be implemented by the UK Government with urgency.en_UK
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherBMJ Publishing Groupen_UK
dc.relationKnuchel-Takano A, Hunt D, Jaccard A, Bhimjiyani A, Brown M, Retat L, Brown K, Hinde S, Selvarajah C, Bauld L & Webber L (2018) Modelling the implications of reducing smoking prevalence: the benefits of increasing the UK tobacco duty escalator to public health and economic outcomes. Tobacco Control, 27 (e2), pp. e124-e129. https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2017-053860en_UK
dc.rightsPublisher policy allows this work to be made available in this repository. Published in Tobacco Control by BMJ Publishing. The definitive copyedited, typeset version Knuchel-Takano A, Hunt D, Jaccard A, et al Modelling the implications of reducing smoking prevalence: the benefits of increasing the UK tobacco duty escalator to public health and economic outcomes Tobacco Control 2018;27:e124-e129 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2017-053860en_UK
dc.titleModelling the implications of reducing smoking prevalence: the benefits of increasing the UK tobacco duty escalator to public health and economic outcomesen_UK
dc.typeJournal Articleen_UK
dc.identifier.doi10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2017-053860en_UK
dc.identifier.pmid29212863en_UK
dc.citation.jtitleTobacco Controlen_UK
dc.citation.issn1468-3318en_UK
dc.citation.issn0964-4563en_UK
dc.citation.volume27en_UK
dc.citation.issuee2en_UK
dc.citation.spagee124en_UK
dc.citation.epagee129en_UK
dc.citation.publicationstatusPublisheden_UK
dc.citation.peerreviewedRefereeden_UK
dc.type.statusAM - Accepted Manuscripten_UK
dc.type.statusAM - Accepted Manuscripten_UK
dc.citation.date06/12/2017en_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUK Health Forumen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationCancer Research UKen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUK Health Forumen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Bristolen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUK Health Forumen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUK Health Forumen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationCancer Research UKen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Yorken_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationCancer Research UKen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationInstitute for Social Marketingen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUK Health Forumen_UK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000448521300006en_UK
dc.identifier.scopusid2-s2.0-85049166526en_UK
dc.identifier.wtid508370en_UK
dc.date.accepted2017-11-12en_UK
dcterms.dateAccepted2017-11-12en_UK
dc.date.filedepositdate2017-12-14en_UK
rioxxterms.apcnot requireden_UK
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_UK
rioxxterms.versionAMen_UK
local.rioxx.authorKnuchel-Takano, Andre|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorHunt, Daniel|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorJaccard, Abbygail|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorBhimjiyani, Arti|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorBrown, Martin|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorRetat, Lise|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorBrown, Katrina|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorHinde, Sebastian|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorSelvarajah, Chit|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorBauld, Linda|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorWebber, Laura|en_UK
local.rioxx.projectInternal Project|University of Stirling|https://isni.org/isni/0000000122484331en_UK
local.rioxx.freetoreaddate2017-12-14en_UK
local.rioxx.licencehttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved|2017-12-14|en_UK
local.rioxx.filenameNoCode-CLEAN-Post-submission-CRUK-UKHF-paper2.pdfen_UK
local.rioxx.filecount2en_UK
local.rioxx.source0964-4563en_UK
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Health Sciences and Sport Journal Articles

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