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dc.contributor.advisorNorman, Rachel-
dc.contributor.advisorGilbert, Lucy-
dc.contributor.authorWorton, Adrian J-
dc.identifier.citationR. A. Norman, A. J. Worton, and L. Gilbert. Past and future perspectives on mathematical models of tick-borne pathogens. Parasitology, pages 1–10, 2015en_GB
dc.description.abstractTicks are of global interest as the pathogens they spread can cause diseases that are of importance to both human health and economies. In Scotland, the most populous tick species is the sheep tick Ixodes ricinus, which is the vector of pathogens causing diseases such as Lyme borreliosis and Louping-ill. Recently, both the density and spread of I. ricinus ticks have grown across much of Europe, including Scotland, increasing disease risk. Due to the nature of the tick lifecycle they are particularly dependent on environmental factors, including temperature and habitat type. Because of this, the recent increase in tick-borne disease risk is believed to be linked to climate change. Many mathematical models have been used to explore the interactions between ticks and factors within their environments; this thesis begins by presenting a thorough review of previous modelling of tick and tick-borne pathogen dynamics, identifying current knowledge gaps. The main body of this thesis introduces an original mathematical modelling framework with the aim to further our understanding of the impact of climate change on tick-borne disease risk. This modelling framework takes into account how key environmental factors influence the I. ricinus lifecycle, and is used to create predictions of how I. ricinus density and disease risk will change across Scotland under future climate warming scenarios. These predictions are mapped using Geographical Information System software to give a clear spatial representation of the model predictions. It was found that as temperatures increase, so to do I. ricinus densities, as well as Louping-ill and Lyme borreliosis risk. These results give a strong indication of the disease risk implications of any changes to the Scottish environment, and so have the potential to inform policy-making. Additionally, the models identify areas of possible future research.en_GB
dc.publisherUniversity of Stirlingen_GB
dc.rightsThe text of the following article is included in this thesis: Norman R, Worton A & Gilbert L (2016) Past and future perspectives on mathematical models of tick-borne pathogens, Parasitology, 143 (7), pp. 850-859. Copyright Cambridge University Press.en_GB
dc.subjectIxodes ricinusen_GB
dc.subjectTick-borne diseaseen_GB
dc.subjectLyme diseaseen_GB
dc.subjectGIS mappingen_GB
dc.subjectMathematical modellingen_GB
dc.subjectMathematical biologyen_GB
dc.subject.lcshTicks as carriers of disease Scotlanden_GB
dc.subject.lcshCastor bean ticken_GB
dc.subject.lcshClimatic changes Scotlanden_GB
dc.subject.lcshClimatic changes Mathematical modelsen_GB
dc.titleUsing mathematical models to understand the impact of climate change on tick-borne infections across Scotlanden_GB
dc.typeThesis or Dissertationen_GB
dc.type.qualificationnameDoctor of Philosophyen_GB
dc.rights.embargoreasonI plan to submit work from this thesis to journals for publication.en_GB
dc.contributor.funderIMPACT student co-funded by the University of Stirling and the James Hutton Instituteen_GB
Appears in Collections:Computing Science and Mathematics eTheses

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