Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Health Sciences and Sport Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Unrefereed
Title: Determinants of European national men’s football team performance: Scotland’s potential progress in the UEFA Euro 2016 qualifiers
Author(s): Scelles, Nicolas
Andreff, Wladimir
Contact Email:
Issue Date: Nov-2014
Date Deposited: 14-Nov-2014
Citation: Scelles N & Andreff W (2014) Determinants of European national men’s football team performance: Scotland’s potential progress in the UEFA Euro 2016 qualifiers. Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary, 38 (2), pp. 108-124.
Abstract: In this paper, we estimate the potential outcomes for Scotland in the 2016 Euro qualifiers, based on a model of the outcomes of previous European men's football matches. The sampled dataset includes all matches played between European national men's football teams between August 2012 and December 2013, that is 368 matches in all. According to our model, Scotland should fail to progress to the UEFA Euro 2016 playoffs by only one goal in Group D. This result is confirmed when we correct our model to take into account the difference between real scores and scores provided by the model for each team in Group D. Nevertheless, in a third model - which is a better predictor - Scotland should come third in Group D and thus proceed to the playoffs in which it could hope to qualify for the Euro 2016 Finals. A fourth and final approach predicts that Scotland could even come second in Group D, behind Germany, and thus qualify directly to the UEFA Euro 2016 Finals in France.
Rights: The publisher has granted permission for use of this work in this Repository. Published in Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary (2014) Volume 38, Number 2, pp 108-124 by the University of Strathclyde. The original publication is available at:

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
Determinants_of_European_national_mens_football_team_performance.pdfFulltext - Published Version198.81 kBAdobe PDFView/Open

This item is protected by original copyright

Items in the Repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

The metadata of the records in the Repository are available under the CC0 public domain dedication: No Rights Reserved

If you believe that any material held in STORRE infringes copyright, please contact providing details and we will remove the Work from public display in STORRE and investigate your claim.