This community contains the ePrints and eTheses produced by Economics staff and students. http://hdl.handle.net/1893/89 2026-10-03T10:27:43Z 2026-10-03T10:27:43Z Lowe, Warnakulasooriya Umesh Ashen Carroll, Páraic Lades, Leonhard Martinez-Pastor, Beatriz http://hdl.handle.net/1893/38330 2026-09-18T00:32:04Z 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Using agent-based modelling for investigating the impact of travel behaviour interventions on mode shift: A travel behaviour simulation in Dublin Author(s): Lowe, Warnakulasooriya Umesh Ashen; Carroll, Páraic; Lades, Leonhard; Martinez-Pastor, Beatriz Abstract: The present study examines the impact of various strategic interventions on behavioural changes from private car use to sustainable travel modes in Dublin City, using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach with a particular focus on soft policy (i.e., cycling promotion campaigns and travel feedback programs) and hard policy (i.e., motor tax and fuel price increments) measures. Utilising the Irish National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), we analysed changes in travel mode share, behavioural stage progression, and CO2 emissions under different policy scenarios. The findings suggest that soft interventions, such as cycling promotion campaigns and travel feedback programs, have consistent impacts on reducing car use, progressing behavioural stages (a shift from lower stages like precontemplation to higher stages like action), and lowering CO₂ emissions, with effects amplified when combined with motor tax and fuel price measures. The findings further highlight that using multiple outcome measures provides a more comprehensive evaluation of the impact, making it valuable for policymakers and decision-makers in assessing different transport policy interventions.

2026-10-01T00:00:00Z Radu, Madalina Erdem, Seda Campbell, Danny http://hdl.handle.net/1893/38273 2026-09-03T00:04:55Z 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Prompting food safety responsibility: Does it influence consumers’ choices of food safety campaigns? Author(s): Radu, Madalina; Erdem, Seda; Campbell, Danny Abstract: Communicating food safety and risk information to consumers is essential to reducing the incidence of foodborne illness. However, despite widespread public health campaigns, behaviour change remains limited. This study investigates whether framing individual responsibility in campaign messages influences consumers’ stated preferences for food safety campaigns. Using a web-based discrete choice experiment with 2343 Scottish adults, participants were randomly assigned to one of three groups: a control group (no prompt), a treatment with a statement-based responsibility prompt or a treatment with a question-based prompt. Respondents completed a series of choice tasks evaluating hypothetical campaigns that varied by delivery channel, timing and message style, alongside an opt-out option (“no campaign”). Results show that question-framed prompts significantly increase the likelihood of choosing a campaign over the opt-out, relative to both the control and statement conditions. While the overall effects are modest in magnitude, they are consistent with prior evidence on the cognitive and motivational impact of question-based framing. These findings suggest that simple, low-cost message framing strategies, particularly those encouraging reflection and self-persuasion, can enhance the perceived effectiveness of public health campaigns and may support improved food safety communication design.

2026-07-01T00:00:00Z Cerrone, Claudia Chakraborty, Anujit Kim, Hyok Jung Lades, Leonhard K. http://hdl.handle.net/1893/38269 2026-09-03T00:02:33Z 2025-11-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Estimating present bias and sophistication over effort and money Author(s): Cerrone, Claudia; Chakraborty, Anujit; Kim, Hyok Jung; Lades, Leonhard K. Abstract: We design and conduct a real-effort experiment to jointly estimate present bias and sophistication across effort and monetary domains. Unlike prior work (e.g.,Augenblick and Rabin, 2019; Fedyk, 2024), we do not assume that these parameters are identical across domains. We explain and empirically demonstrate how assuming identical sophistication across money and effort domains can bias the estimates of key parameters. In our online experiment, participants chose to (predicted to) complete 14% (10%) fewer tasks on the same day than on a future day, leading to an estimated present bias () over effort of 0.70–0.79, and an estimated sophistication () of 0.80–0.88. For money, aggregate present bias () is near zero, but there is substantial heterogeneity, with roughly equal numbers of participants exhibiting present bias and future bias. At the individual level, roughly three quarters of all participants correctly anticipate the direction of their bias in both domains, even if not its full magnitude.

2025-11-01T00:00:00Z Atanga, Isaac Anamsakya http://hdl.handle.net/1893/38246 2026-08-19T12:34:13Z 2025-10-12T00:00:00Z

Title: Geopolitical risk: examining the incidence and impact of geopolitical risk uncertainty in Africa Author(s): Atanga, Isaac Anamsakya Abstract: This thesis develops a locally grounded framework for measuring and analysing geopolitical risk (GPR) in African economies. It argues that geopolitical risk is context-specific and cannot be adequately captured by global indices alone, particularly in settings where domestic insecurity, political instability, local media narratives, and regional security dynamics shape economic expectations. Using domestic newspaper sources, locally relevant keywords, and supervised machine-learning validation, the thesis constructs new GPR indices and applies them to three empirical questions: whether local GPR predicts macroeconomic outcomes, whether multiple uncertainty sources explain emerging-market volatility, and how geopolitical risk is transmitted across African economies. Chapter Two shows that Nigeria’s Local Geopolitical Risk index contains predictive information that is largely missed by global benchmarks. Increases in local GPR are associated with naira depreciation, changes in investment dynamics, and weaker consumer spending, even after controlling for global oil- price movements. Chapter Three demonstrates that South African equity volatility is shaped by domestic geopolitical risk, global policy uncertainty, and macro-financial conditions within a GARCH–MIDAS framework, confirming that emerging-market volatility reflects multiple uncertainty channels operating at different frequencies. Chapter Four extends the analysis regionally by constructing comparable local GPR indices for eight African economies and estimating spillovers using Diebold–Yilmaz and Baruník–Krˇehlíkconnectednessmethods. Theresultsrevealsubstantial,asymmetric,andhorizon- dependent regional spillovers. Gravity-model evidence further shows that formal trade linkages are not the dominant transmission mechanism once endogeneity is addressed. Instead, spillovers are strongly shaped by Sahel–Lake Chad security exposure and by recipient-country absorptive capacity. Overall, the thesis contributes to geopolitical-risk measurement, African macro-finance, and regional- risk analysis. It shows that locally measured geopolitical uncertainty affects exchange rates, capital flows, consumption, volatility, and regional spillovers. The findings support the use of local GPR indices in macroeconomic surveillance, reserve management, fiscal-risk assessment, stress testing, and AfCFTA- related regional early-warning systems.

2025-10-12T00:00:00Z