The employment and output effects of changing patterns of afforestation in Scotland

Abstract

This paper considers the economy-wide output and employment effects of the shift in forest expansion away from coniferous plantations towards broadleaf and native species. Four different woodland types are distinguished within a Scottish input-output table and demand and supply multipliers estimated to show the total effects on the economy of a 100 hectare increase in the land area devoted to each type as well as a switch in land from agriculture. Results suggest that the output and employment effects of new native woodlands and farm woodlands are greater than those generated by planting additional coniferous woodlands of equivalent size. In addition, an increase in the area of these policy-driven woodland types is likely to have positive effects, even when the expansion impinges onto agricultural land of average productivity. It is thus argued that the traditional economic objectives of forestry policy have not been compromised in the drive towards multi-benefit woodlands.