Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/6622
Appears in Collections:Law and Philosophy Journal Articles
Peer Review Status: Refereed
Title: Indicative conditionals, conditional probabilities, and the "defective truth-table": A request for more experiments
Authors: Milne, Peter
Contact Email: peter.milne@stir.ac.uk
Keywords: Indicative conditionals
Conditional probability
Defective truth-table
Inference
Material conditional
Issue Date: May-2012
Publisher: Taylor and Francis (Psychology Press)
Citation: Milne P (2012) Indicative conditionals, conditional probabilities, and the "defective truth-table": A request for more experiments, Thinking and Reasoning, 18 (2), pp. 196-224.
Abstract: While there is now considerable experimental evidence that, on the one hand, participants assign to the indicative conditional as probability the conditional probability of consequent given antecedent and, on the other, they assign to the indicative conditional the "defective truth-table" in which a conditional with false antecedent is deemed neither true nor false, these findings do not in themselves establish which multi-premise inferences involving conditionals participants endorse. A natural extension of the truth-table semantics pronounces as valid numerous inference patterns that do seem to be part of ordinary usage. However, coupled with something the probability account gives us-namely that when conditional-free \phi entails conditional-free \psi, "if \phi then \psi" is a trivial, uninformative truth-we have enough logic to derive the paradoxes of material implication. It thus becomes a matter of some urgency to determine which inference patterns involving indicative conditionals participants do endorse. Only thus will we be able to arrive at a realistic, systematic semantics for the indicative conditional.
Type: Journal Article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/6622
DOI Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13546783.2012.670754
Rights: The publisher does not allow this work to be made publicly available in this Repository. Please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study.
Affiliation: Philosophy

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