No evidence for persistent natural plague reservoirs in historical and modern Europe

Abstract

Plague killed millions of people during the three pandemics in the past two millennia. Despite much research, it remains unclear whether persistent natural plague reservoirs existed in Europe. To examine this question, we have developed a statistical model based on high-resolution and long-term environmental data. From it, we have found no evidence for persistent natural plague reservoirs in historical or contemporary Europe. This suggests that the plague bacterium was repeatedly introduced to Europe, although it might have survived in local medium-term reservoirs. Finally, we question the importance of wildlife rodents as the main hosts in Europe. These findings have wide-ranging significance for the study of human plague through history and provide new tools for resolving century-long enigmas posed by plague.