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http://hdl.handle.net/1893/37278| Appears in Collections: | Economics Journal Articles |
| Peer Review Status: | Refereed |
| Title: | Betting on Momentum in Contests |
| Author(s): | Otting, Marius Deutscher, Christian Singleton, Carl De Angelis, Luca |
| Contact Email: | carl.singleton@stir.ac.uk |
| Keywords: | behavioral bias betting markets expectations market efficiency risk-taking |
| Issue Date: | Oct-2025 |
| Date Deposited: | 9-Jul-2025 |
| Citation: | Otting M, Deutscher C, Singleton C & De Angelis L (2025) Betting on Momentum in Contests. <i>Economic Inquiry</i>, 63 (4), pp. 1066-1089. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.70008 |
| Abstract: | With unprecedented access to volumes and prices of state-contingent claims by a major bookmaker, second-by-second in-play football betting markets, we study what happens after major breaking news. We focus on what might look like a shift in momentum to a bettor: equalising goals. Immediately after this news breaks, the volume of claims sold on the match outcomes increases and is substantially biased towards the equalising team. But there is no evidence that the prices or values of these claims are functions of whichever team scored last. These findings illustrate the value of integrating high-frequency price and quantity data to evaluate the efficiency and profitability of betting markets. |
| DOI Link: | 10.1111/ecin.70008 |
| Rights: | © 2025 The Author(s). Economic Inquiry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Western Economic Association International. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Licence URL(s): | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
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| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otting-etal-EI-2025.pdf | Fulltext - Published Version | 707.52 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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