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http://hdl.handle.net/1893/27610| Appears in Collections: | Law and Philosophy Conference Papers and Proceedings |
| Author(s): | Ebert, Philip Photopoulou, Theoni |
| Title: | Bayes' beacon: avalanche prediction, competence and evidence for competence. Modelling the effect of competent and incompetent predictions of highly improbable events |
| Citation: | Ebert P & Photopoulou T (2013) Bayes' beacon: avalanche prediction, competence and evidence for competence. Modelling the effect of competent and incompetent predictions of highly improbable events. In: Proceedings, 2013 International Snow Science Workshop (ISSW), Grenoble, France. International Snow Science Workshop (ISSW) Proceedings. International Snow Science Workshop 2013, Grenoble, France, 07.10.2013-11.10.2013. Grenoble, France: Montana State University, pp. 363-370. http://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/item.php?id=1817 |
| Issue Date: | 2013 |
| Date Deposited: | 23-Jul-2013 |
| Series/Report no.: | International Snow Science Workshop (ISSW) Proceedings |
| Conference Name: | International Snow Science Workshop 2013 |
| Conference Dates: | 2013-10-07 - 2013-10-11 |
| Conference Location: | Grenoble, France |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we will discuss how competence can affect a person’s ability to avoid avalanches and present a way of modelling such competence. Given that the prior probability of getting caught in avalanches is fairly low for any skier (competent or not), we draw some consequences from the model using Bayes’ theorem for “everyday” situations. |
| Status: | AM - Accepted Manuscript |
| Rights: | © Copyright 2001-2018 Montana State University Library These materials may be copied freely by individuals or libraries for personal use, research, teaching (including distribution to classes), or any "fair use" as defined by U.S. copyright laws. Please include this statement and author or photographer attribution with any copies you make. The materials may be linked to freely in non-commercial, non-subscription Internet editions created for an educational purpose. |
| URL: | http://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/item.php?id=1817 |
Files in This Item:
| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISSW13_Ebert_Photopoulou_with_Corrigendum.pdf | Fulltext - Accepted Version | 1.24 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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