|Appears in Collections:||Faculty of Health Sciences and Sport Journal Articles|
|Peer Review Status:||Refereed|
|Title:||Modelling the implications of reducing smoking prevalence: the benefits of increasing the UK tobacco duty escalator to public health and economic outcomes (Forthcoming/Available Online)|
|Citation:||Knuchel-Takano A, Hunt D, Jaccard A, Bhimjiyani A, Brown M, Retat L, Brown K, Hinde S, Selvarajah C, Bauld L & Webber L (2017) Modelling the implications of reducing smoking prevalence: the benefits of increasing the UK tobacco duty escalator to public health and economic outcomes (Forthcoming/Available Online), Tobacco Control.|
|Abstract:||Introduction Taxing tobacco is one of the most effective ways to reduce smoking prevalence, mitigate its devastating consequential health harms and progress towards a tobacco-free society. This study modelled the health and economic impacts of increasing the existing cigarette tobacco duty escalator (TDE) in the UK from the current 2% above consumer price inflation to 5%. Methods A two-stage modelling process was used. First, a non-linear multivariate regression model was fitted to cross-sectional smoking data, creating longitudinal projections from 2015 to 2035. Second, these projections were used to predict the future incidence, prevalence and cost of 17 smoking-related diseases using a Monte Carlo microsimulation approach. A sustained increase in the duty escalator was evaluated against a baseline of continuing historical smoking trends and the existing duty escalator. Results A sustained increase in the TDE is projected to reduce adult smoking prevalence to 6% in 2035, from 10% in a baseline scenario. After increasing the TDE, only 65% of female and 60% of male would-be smokers would actually be smoking in 2035. The intervention is projected to avoid around 75 200 new cases of smoking-related diseases between 2015 and 2035. In 2035 alone, £49 m in National Health Service and social care costs and £192 m in societal premature mortality and morbidity costs are projected to be avoided. Conclusion Increasing the UK TDE to 5% above inflation could effectively reduce smoking prevalence, prevent diseases and avoid healthcare costs. It would deliver substantial progress towards a tobacco-free society and should be implemented by the UK Government with urgency.|
|Rights:||Publisher policy allows this work to be made available in this repository. Published in Tobacco Control by BMJ Publishing. The original publication is available at: https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2017-053860|
|NoCode-CLEAN-Post-submission-CRUK-UKHF-paper2.pdf||282.19 kB||Adobe PDF||View/Open|
|Supplementary File_3 TDE.pdf||1.69 MB||Adobe PDF||View/Open|
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