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http://hdl.handle.net/1893/25497| Appears in Collections: | Law and Philosophy Journal Articles |
| Peer Review Status: | Refereed |
| Title: | Lottery judgments: A philosophical and experimental study |
| Author(s): | Ebert, Philip A Smith, Martin Durbach, Ian |
| Contact Email: | p.a.ebert@stir.ac.uk |
| Keywords: | Knowledge justified belief lottery proposition statistical evidence testimonial evidence behavioral decision-making |
| Issue Date: | 31-Dec-2018 |
| Date Deposited: | 15-Jun-2017 |
| Citation: | Ebert PA, Smith M & Durbach I (2018) Lottery judgments: A philosophical and experimental study. Philosophical Psychology, 31 (1), pp. 110-138. https://doi.org/10.1080/09515089.2017.1367767 |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present the results of two surveys that investigate subjects’ judgments about what can be known or justifiably believed about lottery out- comes on the basis of statistical evidence, testimonial evidence, and ‘mixed’ evidence, while considering possible anchoring and priming effects. We dis- cuss these results in light of seven distinct hypotheses that capture various claims made by philosophers about lay people’s lottery judgments. We con- clude by summarizing the main findings, pointing to future research, and comparing our findings to recent studies by Turri and Friedman (2014) and Friedman and Turri (2015). |
| DOI Link: | 10.1080/09515089.2017.1367767 |
| Rights: | © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Licence URL(s): | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebert-etal-PhilosophicalPsychology-2018.pdf | Fulltext - Published Version | 2.57 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
When do people judge they know or can justifiably belief the outcome of a lottery
What is it about?
We present the results of two surveys that investigate subjects’ judgments about what can be known or justifiably believed about lottery outcomes on the basis of statistical evidence, testimonial evidence, and “mixed” evidence, while considering possible anchoring and priming effects.
Why is it important?
The survey shows how people's knowledge judgement is often affected by contextual features and that people judge that they don't know the outcome of a lottery purely based on statistical evidence. However, people think that they are justified in believing the outcome of a lottery based purely on statistical evidence and "justified belief" judgements does track underlying probabilities. Moreover, the work offers a wide ranging study of the so-called "lottery intuition" that plays an important role in philosophical theorising, in particular in epistemology
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Lottery Judgements
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